It is time to look at Turkey-Russia relations from the perspective of an 'early response to great power competition' rather than the classical balance-of-power approach.
The Turkish-Russian ceasefire in Syria has run its course, setting the stage for confrontation between Ankara and Moscow if a new buffer to smoothen tensions isn’t achieved.
Washington’s perspective on Ankara is no longer plagued by excessive tensions either. It would seem that the Afghanistan talks and Turkey’s efforts to normalize ties with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) made a positive impact on the atmosphere. Yet the state of idleness and deadlock, which Erdoğan mentioned, won’t change in the absence of fresh attempts to foster bilateral cooperation.
Strategic Flexibility under Geopolitical Anxiety
After a six-hour meeting between leaders and technical committees, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart announced a cease-fire for Syria's Idlib. During the meeting at the Kremlin, the presidents gave short speeches. The whole world followed the process as the decisions could trigger an escalation in violence while intensifying the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Syria. Turkey and Russia both wanted to end the civil war but were unwilling to concede their positions. For both Turkey and Russia, bilateral relations were at stake as well.