SETA Security Radar: Türkiye’s international and regional agenda

The current international landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, marked by escalating crises and increasing globalization of conflicts. Amidst intensifying global and regional competition and growing uncertainties, we find ourselves in an era of widespread anxiety. Predicting the future in such times is a formidable challenge, yet it’s crucial to envision what the world of tomorrow might resemble. Addressing today’s challenges requires both study and foresight. “SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024” aims to project the future trajectory of Türkish foreign, security, and defense policies in light of current dynamics.

The year 2023 witnessed numerous unexpected events and strategic shifts in the international system, hinting at more significant changes in the upcoming year. As Burhanettin Duran has mentioned in his opening speech at the SETA’s conference, key elections in major countries like the U.S., Russia, India, the U.K., Taiwan, and Bangladesh are set to impact global dynamics substantially, potentially leading to geopolitical shifts. These elections are particularly notable given the vast population they represent and their potential to influence existing international and geopolitical polarization.

Conflicts beyond regions

In 2023, conflicts such as the Ukrainian war, the Taiwan situation, Iran’s nuclear program, and the Israeli-Palestinian issue played significant roles in shaping international dynamics. The balance of power and capabilities of global players are increasingly scrutinized, with no clear indication of when the global system will stabilize. The challenges to the U.S. global supremacy and China’s ascent indicate possible shifts in global and regional power dynamics.

🛡 SETA Security Radar | Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024

📥 You can review the study or download the full PDF version (106 pages | 9.75 MB) for free 🔗 https://t.co/AuwLuqBM2p #Türkiye

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— SETA (@setavakfi) December 28, 2023

The Ukraine conflict, characterized by a military stalemate, highlights the disconnection between operational military actions and the broader strategic landscape. The resolution of this conflict, particularly in Ukraine’s favor, hinges on external support, such as the U.S. Congress’s approval of financial and defense aid. In a scenario where Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Europe’s ability to continue supporting Ukraine independently could be jeopardized.

Türkiye’s role, evident since the war’s outset, is crucial for Europe’s security architecture, whether in supporting Ukraine against Russia or in facilitating dialogue to ease tensions with Russia. The future of Türkiye-Europe relations, amidst rising far-right ideologies and strategic myopia in Europe, will significantly impact the region’s geopolitical landscape. The 2024 European Parliament elections could prove pivotal in shaping these relations, requiring a new model of strategic communication and cooperation that aligns with emerging geopolitical realities.

Turn in the Middle East

The Middle East, after a relatively stable period, experienced a significant strategic shock on Oct. 7, underscoring the impossibility of achieving normalization while overlooking regional issues. The aftermath, particularly Israel’s actions, further destabilized the region and complicated normalization efforts. The ongoing conflicts and the potential development of nuclear capabilities in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye could lead to a new confrontational environment in the Middle East, especially if Donald Trump is re-elected in the U.S.

In this landscape of increasing uncertainty, Türkiye is reasserting itself as a key geopolitical player. In 2023, Türkiye sought to normalize relations, particularly with Gulf states, while maintaining its global political presence. Entering 2024, Türkiye faces a complex environment, with its foreign policy shaped by various crises. Turkish-American relations will be a critical factor in 2024, influenced by issues ranging from terrorism to defense. Additionally, Türkiye-EU relations may see positive developments, such as the rapprochement with Greece, but also face challenges due to the rise of far-right ideologies in Europe and the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. Türkiye’s involvement in resolving the Syrian crisis, its role in the South Caucasus, its expanding economic presence in Africa, and its contributions to global issues will further establish its status as a significant global actor.

[Daily Sabah, December 29, 2023]