Is Israel a national security threat for Türkiye?
Erdoğan’s remarks frame Israel as a looming national security threat to Türkiye, intensifying concerns over its moves in Gaza and the broader Middle East
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A year of flames in Gaza
In the wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood, the Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel initiated a large-scale military operation against the Gaza Strip. The asymmetric and intense military attacks ended up with genocide. So far, Israel has killed more than 42.000 Palestinians, most of which are innocent children and women, wounded more than 90,000 and displaced more than 2 million people. Israeli security forces hit civilian residential areas, including schools, hospitals, ambulances, mosques, churches, tents, refugee camps and the U.N. centers. Eventually, Israeli forces destroyed almost all of the Gaza Strip. With the unconditional support of Western countries such as the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom, Israel violated all principles of international humanitarian law in front of the world.
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Israel's cyber-attacks spark a regional war, threatening stability and drawing in global powers
The process of re-establishing diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Syria continues unabated. However, we currently lack sufficient information to analyze this process in detail. Neither the Turkish nor Syrian governments have provided clear signals about the roadmap for this endeavor. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appears to have given the green light for talks with Bashar Assad, who has also expressed his readiness to meet. The National Security Council (MGK) also said that Türkiye would continue to support efforts to reach a genuine public accord that involves all sides in Syria in finding a permanent solution.
Recent developments have brought the ongoing discussions on normalizing Türkiye-Syria relations back to the forefront. Following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy, Alexander Lavrentiev, Syrian leader Bashar Assad, according to the Syrian News Agency, stated, “Syria is open to all initiatives for Syria-Türkiye relations based on its sovereignty over the entire territory of the country and the fight against terrorism and terrorist organizations.” Similarly, the Syrian News Agency quoted Lavrentiev as saying that Russia supports all initiatives for Syria-Türkiye relations, adding: “We see that the conditions for successful mediation are more favorable than ever. Russia is ready to work to advance the negotiations. The goal is to succeed in restoring relations between Syria and Türkiye.”
In response to a question from journalists, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently gave positive signals about "normalization" with Bashar al-Assad. This statement, which coincides with a series of talks at the technical level mediated by Iraq, is important in terms of timing. If two neighboring countries find a solution to their problems by talking, it may make it easier to be ready for regional and global crises. At this point, it is useful to focus on the reasons underlying Türkiye-Syria normalization and the expectations of the parties.
Türkiye's position in multipolar world landscape
The debate on Turkish foreign policy's "axis," "strategic autonomy" and "normalization" policy was recently revived by Parliament's approval of Sweden's NATO membership, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Cairo trip and Türkiye joining the European Sky Shield Initiative.
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Complex dynamics of Türkiye-Iran relations
Traditionally, Türkiye-Iran relations have been defined by a mix of competition and cooperation. Sharing a long land border and possessing a multidimensional historical depth, numerous dynamics simultaneously affect the relationship between the two countries.
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Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.
A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.
The recent developments in the Middle East region have led to a deepening instability, with the possibility of conflict increasing day by day. In 2023, we witnessed a period of relative normalization in the Middle East. While countries in the region were trying to minimize the potential for conflict, they had come a long way in developing common potential.
Parliament returned from recess on Tuesday to debate the PKK’s terror attacks. The PKK carried out suicide attacks against the Turkish forces in northern Iraq on Dec. 22 and Jan. 12, claiming 21 lives. That development fueled a multifaceted debate in Türkiye.
This report presents a general summary of the panel sessions, including the main points of discussion and policy recommendations.
On 10-12 June 2015, a convention of Balkan think tanks was organized by the SETA Foundation, with financial support of the Turkish Prime Ministry Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities (YTB). During the event, researchers from Balkan think tanks discussed various political issues faced by the region and Turkey. This report summarizes the remarks made during the workshop sessions.
