Important parameter for guarantor model is Israeli government and its expected transformation, which is highly probable in the short term after its clear failures
The current Western governments have been giving full and unconditional support to Israel’s oppressive policies and atrocities. Pro-Israeli Western governments do not take into account their citizens’ views on the latest developments in Palestine. They prefer to support the Zionists but not their people. However, they know that their pro-Israeli positions damage their relations with other countries.
During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration's support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of 'strategic defeat,' is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Biden, in a ceremony where he criticized antisemitism this week, recounted the political pressures he faced for stating 35 years ago, 'Being Jewish is not necessary to be a Zionist. And I am a Zionist.' Biden has previously used expressions like 'If there was no Israel, we would have to invent it' and linked the security of Jews to the existence of Israel. It can be politically surprising that Biden, in his second term, insists on his Israel policy, risking American national interests. The only explanation for Biden's insistence might be an irrational and ideological perspective based on assumptions that many Jews might not accept.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Kazakhstan earlier this week to attend the 10th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). In addition to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov, Erdoğan met his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and attended the meeting of the OTS heads of states. The Turkish leader returned to Türkiye following his meeting with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Friday.