Washington’s efforts for ‘damage control’ in Israel

During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration’s support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of ‘strategic defeat,’ is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

WASHINGTON’S CONCERN

The Biden administration has been expressing discomfort with the civilian cost of Israel’s operations for some time. Washington suggests that operations should take a more limited and patient approach, primarily targeting Hamas leadership, while also urging Israel to outline post-Hamas scenarios. Biden reportedly prefers the Palestinian Authority to take control in Gaza, but Netanyahu opposes this. These details being exposed indicate an underlying discomfort between Washington and Tel Aviv, but it’s clear that the Biden administration is not yet ready to exert serious pressure on Israel.

It’s unrealistic to expect Washington’s expression of concern for civilian protection, especially after the death of around 20,000 civilians, to reverse the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The fact that humanitarian aid convoys are allowed passage through strict controls at the Egypt-Israel border crossings shows that Washington’s suggestions are partially effective. However, it’s known that the humanitarian aid reaching Gaza is extremely insufficient. Israel’s Defense Minister Gallant stating that around 80,000 displaced Gazans can return home after ‘complete security’ is established can be seen as a PR move to show that they are not entirely indifferent to Washington’s requests.

REGIONAL WAR POSSIBILITY

Beyond the humanitarian situation, Defense Secretary Austin is also concerned about the escalating tension along the Lebanon border and the Red Sea. Israel is demanding the evacuation of settlements within 10 kilometers of the Lebanon border. Netanyahu, giving an ultimatum for Hezbollah to move away from the border, threatened to turn Beirut into another Gaza if not complied. While the Israeli government is inevitably forced to focus on low-intensity and time-consuming operations in Gaza, this situation might give Netanyahu the opportunity to create a new enemy in a war with Hezbollah. However, in this case, the war could expand, dragging Lebanon into civil war, and strengthening Hezbollah is inevitable. Defense Secretary Austin also wants to prevent a scenario that would force the U.S. into more direct intervention.

In response to the regular Houthi attacks in the Red Sea in recent weeks, Secretary Austin announced an alliance to ensure the security of ship passages. The absence of a Gulf country in the alliance, except Bahrain, indicates how isolated the U.S. is in its Gaza policy. BP’s announcement of suspending ship passages from the Red Sea and many commercial ships making similar decisions will impact the world economy. Already, oil prices have started to rise, and this will have repercussions in American domestic politics, as one of the main reasons for dissatisfaction with Biden is inflation. In this sense, what happens in the Middle East doesn’t stay in the Middle East. The Biden administration, on the way to the elections, does not want to deal with a regional war that will involve Lebanon and Iran and destabilize international trade.

AMERICAN POLICY

Rather than formulating a policy that serves its interests, the Biden administration seems to prefer aligning with the Netanyahu government’s policy and trying to manage the resulting costs. While continuing arms aid to Israel and diplomatic protection at the UN, Washington is looking for ways to overcome its international isolation. A draft currently under negotiation at the UN Security Council calls for the cessation of hostilities, and if the language does not disturb Israel, it is possible for the U.S. to vote positively or at least abstain. If this happens, it should be seen as part of the U.S.’s efforts for ‘damage control.’

The White House is not attempting to change Israel’s policy by taking steps such as conditioning arms aid, calling for a ceasefire, or genuinely pressuring Israel for a two-state solution. The Biden administration seems content with managing the political costs and strategic risks produced by the policy it is pursuing.

[Yeni Şafak, December 19, 2023]