Erdoğan’s remarks frame Israel as a looming national security threat to Türkiye, intensifying concerns over its moves in Gaza and the broader Middle East

In the wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood, the Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel initiated a large-scale military operation against the Gaza Strip. The asymmetric and intense military attacks ended up with genocide. So far, Israel has killed more than 42.000 Palestinians, most of which are innocent children and women, wounded more than 90,000 and displaced more than 2 million people. Israeli security forces hit civilian residential areas, including schools, hospitals, ambulances, mosques, churches, tents, refugee camps and the U.N. centers. Eventually, Israeli forces destroyed almost all of the Gaza Strip. With the unconditional support of Western countries such as the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom, Israel violated all principles of international humanitarian law in front of the world.

Israel's latest covert operations, indiscriminately targeting both soldiers and civilians, have now been directed at Hezbollah. In a coordinated attack, Israel detonated devices placed in the pagers and radios of thousands of Hezbollah members, a move that could be studied in intelligence courses for its precision. Previously, Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran had exposed a major security flaw in Iran. This new operation, injuring thousands of Hezbollah members, now reveals significant security vulnerabilities within Hezbollah itself. If Hezbollah responds to this provocation, which marks Israel’s latest attempt to escalate tensions in the region, war seems inevitable. However, should the U.S. intervene behind the scenes to prevent Hezbollah from engaging Israel, it would signal that Iran is prioritizing a potential post-election deal with the U.S. over immediate conflict.

On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian group Hamas launched a major attack on Israeli settlements near Gaza. This unexpected operation drew global attention and led to a series of responses from Israeli officials and their allies. Following this event, the Middle East experienced a significant escalation in regional conflicts, particularly involving Hezbollah, a Lebanese group with close ties to Iran.

In the dynamic landscape of global politics, Türkiye’s bid for membership in the BRICS group – which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – represents a strategic move poised to reshape its future. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent attendance at the BRICS meetings in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, underscores Türkiye’s efforts to refine its foreign policy. Although Türkiye has not yet formally applied for membership, Fidan expressed interest in joining BRICS during his recent visit to Beijing.

The tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash appears to have plunged Iran into a new period of uncertainty. Questions linger about the cause of the crash, and the political landscape in Iran is, as always, poised for significant shifts. Given the turmoil the country has faced in recent years, predicting the direction of these changes is particularly challenging. Despite the uncertainties, anticipating a revolutionary shift would be imprudent. However, Raisi’s death disrupts the existing power structure and could profoundly impact Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.

The Israeli attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus has escalated regional tensions to unprecedented heights, once again thrusting the intricate geopolitics of the Middle East into the spotlight. Iran’s retaliation to this aggression has resonated not only within the region but also on a global scale. Its response was twofold: to display their military prowess and to convey a political message to the international community. This marked the first instance since 1973 of a state responding militarily to Israel at a conventional level, thereby disrupting the longstanding status quo of Israeli immunity. Through these actions, Iran seeks to enhance its deterrence against regional and global actors while simultaneously solidifying its domestic political position.

The direct confrontation between Iran and Israel remains under control – for now. Yet, it points to an emerging equilibrium in the region. There was already talk of escalating tensions in the Middle East around Gaza and Palestine in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack.

The whole world has been holding its breath and watching the Israeli-Iranian tension for the last two weeks.