Ahead of this weekend’s municipal elections, the People’s Alliance, and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) alike, make the case that there are actually two candidates in each district. The argument that voters should opt for their second favorite if their own party cannot win so that their least favorite candidate does not end up in office is intended to create a “second round” effect.
Obviously, however, there will be no second round in the March 31 election. The candidate with the highest number of votes will win. Yet, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and CHP, which lead the mayoral races in metropolitan areas like Istanbul and Ankara, do not have enough votes to get their respective candidates across the finish line. Hence their efforts to get disenchanted citizens to vote and to win over supporters of similar parties by asking voters to focus on just two candidates and vote accordingly. In other words, they ask people, who actually support one of the fringe parties, whom they would support other than their own party.
As part of that effort, the relevant political parties not only engage with voters in person but also highlight bigger issues like the economy, foreign policy and national security on the campaign trail. The point is to create a groundswell by winning over undecided voters and the supporters of like-minded movements.
That is a two-pronged process. One must try to win over like-minded voters and also stop one’s opponent from doing the same. As the People’s Alliance turns to the New Welfare (YRP) and other right-wing parties, CHP seeks to persuade the respective bases of the Good Party (IP) and the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party). At the same time, the People’s Alliance wants the IP and YSP bases to support its own candidates – just as CHP would like YRP supporters to back Republican candidates.
In short, we are faced with multiple fluctuations that prevent the emergence of a head-to-head ideological division.
Erdoğan puts spotlight on CHP’s role in party campaign
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan placed CHP at the center of his party’s municipal election campaign. Highlighting the political capital that senior CHP members have accumulated in the aftermath of last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, he makes references to the money stacks controversy, internal rivalry, the opposition bloc’s humiliating defeat, fragmentation, lack of action and the main opposition’s love of coups.
Speaking in the Anatolian heartland on Monday, Erdoğan criticized the main opposition party more aggressively than ever before: “They are only capable of stacking up dirty money. Six or seven people stacking up dollars and euros for which they cannot account – it’s unclear whether this is the main opposition party or some cartel engaging in illegitimate acts.”
Calling for synergy between the central government and municipalities in the “Century of Türkiye,” the president also highlights that no other nation could have put up the same kind of fight as the Turks over the last decade. Keeping in mind his earlier announcement that Sunday’s election would be the “final election” of his career “under the law,” Erdoğan urges voters to support the People’s Alliance in the local election to help Türkiye leap forward in the next four years. He supports that argument with references to his track record, his past efforts for the country and the risks emerging in the age of chaos: “Those who cannot stomach Türkiye’s principled and just stance are waiting to ambush us. As we set our sights on even greater goals, some expect us to stumble. Anyone in their right mind knows that this isn’t about Erdoğan or the People’s Alliance. This is directly about Türkiye.” Another major theme has been disaster preparedness.
Meanwhile, CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel (who seems unwilling or unable to show his face in Istanbul) has failed to set the agenda thus far. He has been touching on many different topics, but two of his most recent remarks were particularly problematic, and possibly counterproductive. First, the CHP chair said that he would “surrender if the youth were to stage a 3 a.m. coup.”
Secondly, he made discriminatory remarks with reference to Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the republic’s founder, at a campaign event in Izmir’s Menemen: “If anyone’s hand were to vote for the AK Party candidate, for some reason or another, in this election, they should know that Ghazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk would be rolling in his grave.”
Let us recall that Özel made the same case – albeit somewhat more mystically – before when he told voters that Atatürk wanted them to put his party in charge.
The bottom line is that whoever manages to persuade voters in the closely-fought metropolitan areas will triumph on Sunday evening.
