Unpacking the AK Party’s 2024 electoral setback

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On March 31, the local elections profoundly transformed the landscape of Turkish politics. For the first time …
  • Sunday's municipal elections in Türkiye highlighted the country's democratic maturity. Determining the outcome of political competition at the ballot box was yet another manifestation of democratic consolidation in the country. The Republican People's Party (CHP) ranked first in the election, where 78.55 of voters participated, receiving 37.76% and winning 14 metropolitan municipalities and 21 provinces.
  • Ahead of this weekend’s municipal elections, the People’s Alliance, and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) alike, make the case that there are actually two candidates in each district. The argument that voters should opt for their second favorite if their own party cannot win so that their least favorite candidate does not end up in office is intended to create a “second round” effect.
  • With the municipal election just three weeks away, the relationship between the People’s Alliance and the New Welfare Party ("Yeniden Refah" in Turkish - YRP) becomes more apparent. The most significant development of the current election cycle was the opposition parties, which formed an alliance with the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), in May 2023 and decided to field their own candidates.

Bu Konuda Daha Fazla

  • The attempt by the Good Party (IP) chairperson, Meral Akşener, not to form any alliances for next year’s municipal elections continues to set the political agenda in Türkiye. The current situation does not just highlight the opposition’s ongoing crisis. It also reflects on the May 2023 coalition that the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) spearheaded. That is why Akşener’s new discourse, on top of the CHP’s internal strife and "change" debate, remains the subject of a heated political debate.

  • Türkiye successfully held a historic election in line with democratic maturity. Governments around the world watched closely as 88.92% of eligible voters participated in the election and Turkish democracy proved its strength yet again. In the end, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan beat his opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, by almost 5 percentage points. Meanwhile, the People’s Alliance claimed 322 parliamentary seats – the majority – with 49.5%.

  • Tens of millions of Turks went to the polls and cast their votes last Sunday to choose the next president and the 600-seat Parliament. Over 30 political parties and five multiparty political coalitions (the People’s Alliance, the Nation Alliance, the ATA Alliance, the Labor and Freedom Alliance, and the Union of Socialist Forces Alliance) competed in the elections. At first, there were four official candidates, namely, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Sinan Oğan and Muharrem Ince. However, after the withdrawal of Ince, only three of them competed for the Presidency.

  • Political parties in Türkiye are working hard to finalize their candidate lists by the April 9 deadline. The relevant committees probably find it more difficult to select candidates today than ever. The already-complex selection process is further complicated by electoral alliances producing joint lists in certain districts and trying to predict how those decisions may influence the allocation of parliamentary seats.

  • It would seem that HDP has started dominating the opposition bloc with its radical demands as well as marginal discourse.