What is currently happening in Syria and the reaction of the world to recent developments sounds almost like a tragic comedy. The Russian government made a “game changing” maneuver in the civil war in Syria, engaging in military operations in support of the Assad regime while the rest of the world was hoping their rhetoric would defeat the regime.
From the very first day of reports about the Russian military buildup, it was apparent for many that it aimed to change the situation on the ground, transform the geopolitics of the regime and act with a longer term strategy in the country. Moscow first denied reports of the military buildup, but after reports of increasing Russian military activity in Syria, Moscow declared that its military aims to help the Assad regime fight the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). However, this statement was soon proved to be a cover when Russian war planes in Syria started to attack forces fighting against Assad instead of striking ISIS. In an analysis of the Russian strikes, the Institute for the Study of War concluded that the primary goal of the attacks seem to be to support Assad instead of fighting ISIS. The analysis says: “Russian airstrikes continue to primarily target Syrian opposition groups in areas far from ISIS’s core terrain. These strikes are concentrated in northwestern Syria, particularly in rebel-held areas of Idlib province and the northern countryside of Hama province. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed only three airstrikes targeting positions in known ISIS-held terrain between Oct. 1 and Oct. 3. However, local reporting only confirmed two of these strikes. The Russian air campaign in Syria appears to be largely focused on supporting the Assad regime and itsfight against the Syrian opposition rather than combating ISIS.”
So now, from the Russian operations in Syria it becomes clear that the main goal is to support Assad and degrade and destroy opposition forces. It was reported in the last few days that opposition forces were increasingly concerned about the start of a major air campaign by Russia Syria. Some other sources have also reported an increasing flow of Shiite fighters to regime-controlled areas. While Russia was taking these steps in Syria, the Russian government and President Vladimir Putin also shifted the public debate in Syria from the Ukrainian conflict to the fight against terrorism and ISIS. Together with troop relocation and the construction of new air bases, the shift in the propaganda campaign demonstrates it is more than some operational change, but a more planned action on the part of Putin.
As mentioned in my previous piece on Russian-U.S. relations in terms of Syria, the U.S. position concerning Russian actions in Syria had been very ambivalent, and in some cases contradictory. However, developments in the last three weeks show that Russia’s actions generated a sense of urgency, but have not so far lead to a consistent reaction from the U.S.
In the aftermath of the release of news reports about Russian military buildup, foreign policymakers and administration officials tried to contact their Russian counterparts to make sense of Russia’s actions. However, the first statements demonstrated an increasing concern among U.S. policymakers about potential problems that could take place as a result of Russia’s actions in Syria. U.S. President Barack Obama made his first statement about the Russian actions on Sept. 11 and said they are doomed to failure. He said: “It appears now that Assad is worried enough that he’s inviting Russian advisors in and Russian equipment in. And that won’t change our core strategy, which is to continue to put pressure on [ISIS] in Iraq and Syria, but we are going to be engaging Russia to let them know that you can’t continue to double down on a strategy that’s doomed to failure.” However, he still left a door open for Russia to be involved in finding a resolution to the conflict. He said: “And if they are willing to work with us and the 60-nation coalition that we’ve put together, t
