The short-term winner of the July 22 elections is the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) but the big winner is the traditional periphery of Turkish society. The AK Party’s challenge now is to turn this victory into an asset for those who voted for the party. And this means electing a president who will not be a disappointment for the vast majority of the public.
The elections on Sunday were held with great success. There were no major security issues or disputes over votes. Despite the heat and summer vacation, the voter turnout was around 85 percent. People voted with full confidence in democracy and with the conviction that they have a say over the future of their country. In this sense, the real winner of the elections is Turkish democracy.
The new parliament represents about 85 percent of the voters. This means that no one can question the new parliament’s ability to represent the people’s will. This mandate gives full confidence to Parliament to elect a new president.
The Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) big loss in the elections should send a powerful message to its leaders about its ideological convictions. An election campaign run on secularism and nothing else is a kind of political suicide. The CHP is practically nonexistent in central Anatolia and the East. In places like İzmir and Edirne where the CHP came in number one, it only got votes only from certain groups. With such an unbalanced distribution of votes, the CHP cannot claim to represent the Turkish voters, let alone the core values of the republic. I know this is wishful thinking but it is high time for CHP to look for a new leadership. But more importantly, the CHP has to pay more attention to people’s values.
The Nationalist Movement Party’s (MHP) success in the elections is also a good gain for Turkish democracy. With the MHP in Parliament the problem of representation is resolved to a great extent. The MHP votes mean that identity still plays a big role in politics. The AK Party may try to present itself as a party of good service rather than ideology. But the MHP votes are likely to put more pressure on the AK Party leadership to handle identity demands more carefully and more openly. This means paying more attention to the conservative issues expected by the AK Party constituency. The big question now is whether an alliance of sorts will emerge between the AK Party and MHP, and the presidential election will be the first big test.
As for the AK Party’s success, it was expected but such a resounding victory must have been a surprise for everyone. With almost half of the votes going to the AK Party, it now can claim to be a center party. The support is also an endorsement of its past policies and especially its record on the EU. This means that despite the MHP presence in Parliament, the EU process will be reenergized. As a conservative party, the AK Party is likely to continue to open up Turkey to the world, both East and West.
The fact that the AK Party was able to get votes from every part of Turkey and got deputies from all cities but one is extremely important. Unlike the other political parties, the AK Party’s support base is not limited to certain regions or cities. Neither is it limited to certain classes or groups of people. The AK Party is the only party that is able to get votes from such prosperous, developed, urban and mixed places as İstanbul, Sakarya and Kocaeli and such underdeveloped, rural and largely homogeneous areas as Diyarbakır, Ağri and Bingol. The other parties, including the CHP and MHP, are practically nonexistent in the eastern part of the country. This is of crucial importance for the national unity and solidarity of Turkey. Despite the presence of Democratic Society Party (DTP)-supported independents, the vast majority of Kurds see the AK Party as their political address.
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