Recent months have seen a flurry of diplomatic activity between Türkiye and Iraq, culminating in a significant agreement in Baghdad last week. This accord signals a mutual eagerness to close a chapter of discord and paves the way for a comprehensive consensus on a range of issues, including a unified stance against the PKK. With President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s impending visit to Baghdad, and potentially Irbil, in April, this strategic alignment not only promises a sustainable framework for bilateral ties but also portends regional ramifications.
Türkiye and Iraq issued a joint statement following last week’s security summit in Baghdad, marking the beginning of a new chapter in bilateral relations.
The killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by pro-Iran militias via UAV strikes initiated a new escalation in the escalating regional conflict. Since October 7th, concerns about regional warfare seemed obsolete. We previously noted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's attempt to expand the Gaza conflict regionally and entangle the US in conflict with Iran. The Jordan attack partially succeeded in these efforts. Over the past week, the US conducted military operations in the region, signaling a response.
Traditionally, Türkiye-Iran relations have been defined by a mix of competition and cooperation. Sharing a long land border and possessing a multidimensional historical depth, numerous dynamics simultaneously affect the relationship between the two countries.
Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.