Representative Mike Johnson, the majority leader of the House of Representatives, became the latest political casualty of former President Trump this week with two significant defeats. Johnson’s attempt to remove Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas failed due to three Republican representatives voting against it. Subsequently, Johnson’s move to vote on a $17.6 billion aid package for Israel also failed with opposing votes from both parties. Johnson’s lack of political leadership experience is among the significant reasons for this situation. Trump’s reluctance to resolve issues such as the immigration crisis and Israel in Congress, which he wanted to use in his presidential election campaign, makes it difficult for Republicans to act unitedly. When the legislative process becomes election-oriented, Congress cannot produce solutions or shake off its dysfunctional image.
BORDER CRISIS
In recent months, President Biden attempted to prevent Trump from using the immigration issue as election material by approaching the escalating migrant problem as Republicans desired. Republican and Democratic senators agreed on immigration reform legislation in the Senate, but Trump targeted Republican senators, saying this bill should not pass. Trump also openly stated his intention to use the immigration crisis in his election campaign. Majority leader Johnson said the moment this bill reached the House of Representatives, it would be dead following Trump’s opposing statements. Trump’s electoral calculations prevented Republican senators and representatives from reaching an agreement with Biden to solve the border crisis.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration had been heavily criticized in recent weeks due to the situation at the Mexico border. Trumpian criticisms that tens of thousands of irregular migrants entering the country through Mexico were ‘invading’ the country were being felt. To alleviate this helpless image and avoid this issue becoming a headache in his election campaign, Biden evolved to a point where he largely accepted the tough measures Republicans demanded. This bill was full of measures reminiscent of the Trump era’s anti-immigration stance and had drawn criticism from various human rights groups. If passed, this bill could have caused significant discomfort within Biden’s own party. However, Biden’s use of this bill as a critical electoral move against Trump seems to have been successful for now.
By making a ‘political sacrifice’ on the border crisis, Biden managed to somewhat alleviate the perception of his helplessness in solving the problem. The reason for the unresolved immigration crisis became not the President’s helplessness but the internal disagreements among Republicans driven by Trump’s electoral calculations. This does not mean Biden is free from the political cost of this issue, but it is possible to say that Republicans will also share this cost. Meantime, the failure of House leader Johnson to fulfill Trump’s desires and keep Republicans together has been a significant political gift to Biden and the Democrats. However, in a context where the border crisis continues, it is known that Trump’s promises to completely close the border and deport millions of irregular migrants resonate with voters.
AID TO ISRAEL AND UKRAINE
Another important reason for the administration’s acceptance of toughening border security was Biden’s desire to pass aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan through Congress. While Senate Republicans were open to such bargaining, House Republicans, in line with Trump’s preferences, only wanted to pass aid to Israel. The reason why House group leader Johnson presented the $17.6 billion aid package to Israel alone for a vote was this. However, this vote required a two-thirds majority procedurally, necessitating Democratic support. Democrats insisted on passing aid to Israel along with the border security package without separating it from aid to Ukraine and Taiwan. Johnson’s calculation was to target Democrats who voted against aid to Israel, but the opposing votes from some Republicans resulted in a new debacle for him.
The legislative processes in Congress have become extremely dysfunctional, complex, and far from solving problems, partly due to political polarization and partly due to the destructive effect of Trumpian politics. The Biden administration could be accused of only remembering to act on border security after seeing the political dividends of opposition. We can interpret Biden’s shift from using humanitarian rhetoric on immigration to ultimately accepting Trumpian policies as a failure. It’s not difficult to predict that this sense of helplessness and stagnation in domestic politics will continue. In this context, the politicization of aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan emerges as significant handicaps for American foreign policy in an election year. This week’s events show that there will not be a clear stance in American foreign policy until the Trump-Biden race is over.
