When we take the determination of the Turkish government and the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan into consideration, it seems that Turkey will continue its foreign policy based on principles such as diversification, pro-activism and autonomy. Turkey will continue its quest for political autonomy, regional leadership and global status. Today, I will try to briefly analyze possible Turkish foreign policy developments in 2022 in three different contexts, namely national, regional and global.
National context
Turkey will continue its quest for self-sufficiency by increasing its military power and effectiveness, especially through the production of new high-tech weapons, such as unmanned aerial combat vehicles. The more developed its defense industry, the more autonomous Turkey will become; and, the more autonomous Turkey becomes, the more independent its foreign policy will be. Therefore, it is obvious that Turkey will continue to invest in the defense industry, the most significant element of the use of hard power in foreign policy.
Furthermore, the main security institutions such as the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and national intelligence will consolidate their new mindset, which attaches greater importance to their function in the struggle against external threats, both regional and global, and the measures taken against external security developments. When the Turkish security institutions abandoned their inward-looking perspectives and began to act as real foreign policy actors, the execution of Turkey’s hard power in foreign policy increased. The more experience the Turkish security institutions gain in foreign operations, the more active they will become in foreign policy.
In addition, Turkey will continue to benefit from its new sub-governmental and nongovernmental actors in foreign policy to increase its soft power capability in international politics. Despite several domestic economic problems, Turkey has dramatically increased its exports in 2021, exceeding a record high of $225 billion (TL 2.98 trillion) to more than 170 countries.
Regional context
It is evident that Turkey will continue to follow the regional developments closely to deescalate tensions in regional crises and to improve the normalization process with regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Armenia and Israel. All these normalization processes and regional developments, in one way or another, are related to United States President Joe Biden’s policies toward the Middle East, especially regarding Iran.
Turkey will adapt its regional policy according to the new regional dynamics. The first concrete step was taken toward the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations. While Turkey decided to begin charter flights between the two countries, Armenia is preparing to end its boycott of Turkish goods. As expected, this process will have positive implications for the political stability of the South Caucasus.
The second concrete step was taken regarding the normalization process with Saudi Arabia. Erdoğan has just declared that he will visit the Saudi kingdom next month. This visit indicates the end of otherization between the two states after the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the continuation of the normalization process with the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia may also terminate the unofficial boycott against Turkish goods.
Turkey will continue to be one of the most active diplomatic players in some regional issues such as the Ukrainian-Russian crisis, the rising tension in the Black Sea basin and the continuing problems in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey will continue to follow a multidimensional foreign policy toward global powers. That is, given the global-level political instability and rising tension among global players, it will not favor one over another.
Most likely, one of the conflicts that Turkey will be unable to resolve is its difficult relationship with Greece, which is unconditionally supported by most Western countries such as the U.S. and France. Unfortunately, mainly due to the maximalist demands of the Greek side, the Turkish-Greek conflict will continue to poison Turkish-European relations.
Global context
Given the current political and economic conditions in the global system, Turkey will continue to pursue its multidimensional and diversified foreign policy in 2022. On one hand, Turkey will continue to call for a comprehensive reformation and restoration of the global system and the structure of the United Nations to make the global system more inclusive and interdependent. On the other hand, it will call on its counterparts to respect basic principles of international law and norms in their foreign dealings.
Turkey will continue to consolidate its global-level gains and extend its outreach to every corner of the world. Ankara plans to increase its relations with its traditional partner countries such as the European states and is expected to intensify its efforts to improve its cooperative relations with the non-Western world such as Turkic states and Africa.
Turkey’s success in developing and manufacturing new types of weapons, such as unmanned aerial armed vehicles, will provide a more effective role for Turkey not only in regional crises but also in global affairs. The export of Turkish drones to many European and African countries such as Ethiopia will increase Turkey’s effectiveness in international politics.
What’s expected in sum?
All in all, under the strong leadership of Erdoğan, Turkey will increase its political leverage and its capacity and capabilities in the execution of an effective foreign policy. It will try to materialize its political and economic objectives in international politics. For this reason, Turkey will continue to take measures to increase its both soft and hard power and to provide both humanitarian and developmental aid, and military support and strategic weapons to friendly countries. Furthermore, the country will continue to work toward an Ankara-centered autonomous foreign policy as an active player in all regional issues and in international organizations.
