The year 2011, the beginning of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions, has been considered by most observers of the Middle East as a turning point in the history of the region. The process of mass demonstrations, insurgencies and revolutions is generally known as the Arab Spring. It is claimed that the region has entered into a new epoch with this sweeping wave of changes.
During the post-Arab Spring period, many significant developments, such as the Egyptian military coup in 2013, the intra-Gulf divisions and conflicts in 2014 and 2017, the formation of the alliance of the globe under the auspices of the United States, the introduction of the so-called “Deal of the Century” and signing of the Abraham Accords between some Arab countries and Israel have also influenced the regional system. However, the real rupture came in October 2023, when Hamas, the Palestinian resistance movement, attacked Israeli targets. I will briefly analyze the meaning of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on the regional and global balances.
First of all, the Hamas attack has destroyed the image of an undefeatable Israel. In other words, Israel’s myth of invincibility is over. Israel’s air defense system, named the “Iron Dome,” was largely rendered dysfunctional when thousands of missiles were launched from the Gaza Strip by Hamas. For the first time in Israel’s history, a large part of the invaders (called “settlers by Israel), coming from all over the world, have returned to their respective countries where they used to live. From now on, fewer Jews will attempt to live in Israel, which is not considered a safe haven anymore.
Furthermore, after losing its hegemonic discourse, Israel has largely lost its sympathy in Western public opinion. Western public opinion has begun to question the support of their respective governments to Israel to be able to commit war crimes.
Normalization ends
Second, the Middle Eastern normalization process has ended. While some countries, such as Türkiye, have cut their diplomatic relations with Israel, some others, such as the Arab states, have frozen their cooperative relations with Israel. Both Arabs and Israelis have understood one more time that without the normalization of the plight of the Palestinian people, it is impossible to achieve complete normalization in the region.
Western destruction
Third, the Western hegemony has largely been destroyed after the Israeli atrocities and genocidal acts against innocent Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, due to the unconditional support from Western countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany.
Most Western governments have provided unconditional support, including high-tech conventional and strategic weapons to be used against innocent and defenseless civilians. The West has totally lost its moral superiority. The West cannot claim any principle of humanitarian law or international law, all of which were violated during the Israeli atrocities.
Future risked
Fourth, the international institutions such as the United Nations and its specialized agencies that were established by the West to provide legitimacy to its global hegemony, failed to make any effective decision to prevent the Israeli genocidal acts in Gaza. From now on, it will be quite difficult for those international institutions to make any claims in any regional conflict. They have also largely lost their meaning and legitimacy. Not only international organizations that function in political and economic sectors, but also those that function in technical sectors lost their effectiveness. Israeli forces have not allowed the leaders of the global international organizations to enter Palestine and inspect the conditions on the ground.
Top global topic
Fifth, the Middle East has returned to the top of the global agenda in 2023. The Russian-Ukrainian war and the global rivalry in the Pacific have lost coverage in the international media. The U.S. has returned to the Middle East by sending some of its largest warships to the Eastern Mediterranean region in support of Israel. The U.S. government has even decreased its military support to Ukraine in favor of Israel. Unable to compete at full speed on three different fronts, Washington has lowered the level of its global rivalry with China.
More polarization
Sixth, after the Western-supported Israeli atrocities in Palestine, the world is now much more polarized than before in the three decades of the post-Cold War period. The West, which is complicit in Israel’s war crimes, will face many difficulties in persuading other countries to bandwagon with Western countries and to abide by Western values. After the rise of xenophobia, Islamophobia and ultra-nationalism in the West, the Global South is trying to diminish its dependence on Western countries and to seek alternative paths for political and economic recovery. The Palestinian resistance has reemerged as one of the main symbols of anti-imperialism and anti-Western thinking.
All in all, Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the following Israeli atrocities have largely changed both regional and global balances. Therefore, it will be remembered as one of the main turning points in regional and global history, similar to the impact of the Sept. 11 attacks or the Arab Spring.
