This study argues that the problems between Erbil and Baghdad, and their prolonged existence prevent Türkiye from deepening cooperation with Iraq in terms of security, water issues, and economic relations

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent visit to Iraq could mark the beginning of a new chapter in the longstanding relationship between Türkiye and Iraq. During his visit to Baghdad, Türkiye and Iraq signed a strategic framework agreement that addresses a variety of issues, ranging from security to economic cooperation. This agreement represents the culmination of nearly a year of productive high-level discussions between the two countries. Furthermore, President Erdoğan’s first visit to Iraq since 2011 has established new connections between Türkiye, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, enhancing the region’s geo-economic landscape.

Under the strategic framework agreement for joint cooperation, which the two countries inked in Baghdad, their bilateral relations have been elevated to the level of strategic partnership with a “qualitative leap.” The Turkish and Iraqi governments created a road map for future cooperation. Their commitment to solving problems and elevating their cooperation to the highest level rests on the “win-win” principle. Accordingly, the Turkish delegation, which included eight Cabinet ministers, focused on a broad range of issues, including counterterrorism, cross-border waters, security, the defense industry, trade, health care, communication, education, energy and transportation.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid an official one-day visit to Iraq on Monday. He was accompanied by a large delegation, including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, Defense Minister Yaşar Güler, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat, Energy Minister Alpaslan Bayraktar, Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure Abdülkadir Uraloğlu, Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Ibrahim Yumaklı and Minister of Industry and Technology Fatih Kacır. Many high-ranking Turkish officials also accompanied President Erdoğan.

The killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by pro-Iran militias via UAV strikes initiated a new escalation in the escalating regional conflict. Since October 7th, concerns about regional warfare seemed obsolete. We previously noted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's attempt to expand the Gaza conflict regionally and entangle the US in conflict with Iran. The Jordan attack partially succeeded in these efforts. Over the past week, the US conducted military operations in the region, signaling a response.

Traditionally, Türkiye-Iran relations have been defined by a mix of competition and cooperation. Sharing a long land border and possessing a multidimensional historical depth, numerous dynamics simultaneously affect the relationship between the two countries.

Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.

Whoever talks about the Palestinian-Israeli question from the United States to China and from the European Union to Russia claims that they support a two-state solution. The main reason for this claim is the two well-known United Nations Resolutions about the issue.

We're talking about the possibility of Israel's attacks on Gaza triggering a regional war after October 7. Recent developments actually indicate that we are already in the midst of a regional war. However, the fluctuating intensity of such conflicts and the fact that the parties involved are not always clearly defined make it difficult to label it as a regional war. The evolution of warfare between countries, occurring in complex ways across different arenas and activating the capacities of various parties, has made traditional, all-encompassing wars increasingly rare. Many countries now prefer proxy wars due to their lower cost, lower risk, and deniability.

A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.

The recent developments in the Middle East region have led to a deepening instability, with the possibility of conflict increasing day by day. In 2023, we witnessed a period of relative normalization in the Middle East. While countries in the region were trying to minimize the potential for conflict, they had come a long way in developing common potential.

Parliament returned from recess on Tuesday to debate the PKK’s terror attacks. The PKK carried out suicide attacks against the Turkish forces in northern Iraq on Dec. 22 and Jan. 12, claiming 21 lives. That development fueled a multifaceted debate in Türkiye.

After World War II, an ideological war emerged between the fascist bloc and an alliance of liberals and communists. The United States spearheaded the establishment of the United Nations and its specialized agencies to create a new world order based on rules, norms and procedures.

The Middle East rang in the new year with assassinations and terror attacks. Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy leader of Hamas' political bureau, was assassinated in Beirut last Tuesday. The following day, two bombings in Kirman, Iran (for which Daesh has claimed responsibility) killed 103 people. As those attacks shifted everyone’s attention to Israel, Iran and Hezbollah pledged to exact “revenge and a heavy price.”

On Jan. 4, Tehran Times, an international newspaper of Iran, described Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the United States in Iraq, as the “architect” of the new regional geometry in the Middle East. On the same day, a terrorist attack occurred in Kerman, Iran, killing more than 100 civilians.

As uncertainty, competition and conflict gain momentum within the international system, Türkiye engages in diplomacy to play a more defining role in global and regional crises.