In recent days, news suggesting progress in the discussions between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and approaching the stage of agreement, could herald a new era in the Middle East. Saudis are seeking support from the United States to develop 'peaceful' nuclear technology in response to Iran's nuclear capacity, as well as security assurances in the event of a potential war. The agreement, which includes cooperation in advanced technology and distancing from China, is critical for the Biden administration, as its support depends on it. However, it will be challenging for a government led by Netanyahu, who has always opposed the establishment of a Palestinian state, to accept the insistence of the Saudis on stopping the Gaza war and a two-state solution. The Biden administration aims to use the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia to sideline the Gaza issue and appear to have 'resolved' the Palestinian issue by the November elections, but Netanyahu remains the biggest obstacle to this.
It is surprising to see that the Arab governments and citizens did not react effectively to the latest developments in the Gaza Strip. Although observers have been expecting a more effective reaction from Arab governments and citizens, they have largely remained indifferent to the ongoing genocide against the Palestinian people, living not only in the Gaza Strip but also in the West Bank. The streets of Arab states are unexpectedly very quiet compared with the streets of many non-Arab and non-Muslim countries.
The Biden administration seems to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran's direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to Israel through various channels that any attack on Iran should be 'proportional,' also signaling to the Netanyahu government that US support for Israel would be limited to defense. With the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, Iran's UAVs and missiles were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace, making the job of the Iron Dome relatively easier. However, Iran's low-intensity and controlled attack with low-cost weapons demonstrated that in a more 'real' war, Israel's task would be far from easy. The attack, which brought the urgency of Israel's defense to the forefront, seems to pave the way for a vote on a long-delayed aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. The fact that American foreign aid could reach the approval stage thanks to the attack on Israel indicates how much the issues that bring Republicans and Democrats together have decreased.
The direct confrontation between Iran and Israel remains under control – for now. Yet, it points to an emerging equilibrium in the region. There was already talk of escalating tensions in the Middle East around Gaza and Palestine in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack.
The whole world has been holding its breath and watching the Israeli-Iranian tension for the last two weeks.