‘Table for 16’ discourse, deepening crisis of Turkish opposition

Türkiye’s main opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, refuses to change. On Tuesday, he described President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a threat to the country’s survival. His combative tone was obviously part of an attempt to resist calls for change from within the Republican People’s Party (CHP). That is why Kılıçdaroğlu said that he would be willing to enlarge the opposition bloc popularly known as the “table for six” to “bring Türkiye into the light” – in defense of his decision to form a grand coalition ahead of the May 2023 elections.

For the record, his most recent remarks did not just serve his plan to keep his seat. Kılıçdaroğlu actually believes that the Nation Alliance and its collaboration with the pro-PKK Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and the Green Left Party (YSP) proved successful. Accordingly, he declared his intention to contest the March 2024 municipal elections with the same game plan. It is also possible that he identifies himself as the only CHP politician capable of playing that game.

It goes without saying that such remarks consolidate Kılıçdaroğlu’s power over the main opposition party. Yet Erdoğan responded to that statement by offering free advice to his defeated opponent: “He’s talking about the ‘table for 16’ now. You should further increase that number. Admitting more members to the table won’t yield any results. This nation demands an iron will. It demands achievements. You won’t get anywhere with lies.”

‘Heavy defeat’

Having suffered a “heavy defeat” in the most recent elections, the Good Party (IP) and HDP-YSP do not seem interested in Kılıçdaroğlu’s plan to enlarge the opposition bloc. Both CHP and the rest of Türkiye’s opposition parties are compelled to take stock of what happened. The IP clearly alienated many nationalists by joining the Nation Alliance and because of HDP’s endorsement of Kılıçdaroğlu.

Accordingly, IP Chair Meral Akşener’s original goal of becoming the country’s most popular right-wing party seems unattainable. Indeed, the IP promptly responded to the main opposition leader’s comments as follows: “Judging by his remarks, one might think that everything went perfectly well. We lost an election and we need to learn from it. Our job is to determine what the Nation Alliance did wrong.”

One thing is crystal clear: The IP and HDP-YSP started talking about the possibility of fielding mayoral candidates themselves to signal that they will drive a hard bargain with CHP. This is their way of preparing for Kılıçdaroğlu’s eventual claim that the opposition has no choice but to form an alliance to defeat the AK Party. When the time comes, they will produce a list of mayoral seats that they want for themselves.

It remains to be seen what Meral Akşener has to say about the Nation Alliance’s performance and election loss. Supposedly, she will try to position the Good Party as the “third way” after that movement’s upcoming congress. Indeed, the scrutiny over the Nation Alliance’s mistakes could cause more problems than internal strife within the main opposition party. The main opposition party and the opposition bloc will experience a deeper crisis if Akşener were to criticize Kılıçdaroğlu strongly, as she did upon leaving the opposition bloc. Failure to reflect on what happened would perpetuate the Good Party’s crisis.

Local elections loom

As the ruling People’s Alliance seamlessly prepares for next year’s municipal elections, the opposition needs to take stock in a timely and appropriate manner. Not too little, not too much. Not too limited nor too broad.

It is difficult, however, to end the post-election fight within the main opposition party – as the ongoing leadership battle shows. Furthermore, angry and frustrated voters may choose to punish CHP even if the party elites attempt to prevent change with an eye on the municipal election. Still, the main opposition party cannot seem to chart its course and remains entangled in a multi-directional yet ambiguous debate over “change.”

Earlier this week, top CHP officials in 81 provinces issued a joint statement to ask that their movement thinks of a change in terms of principles and an agenda instead of focusing on specific individuals. Either way, Kılıçdaroğlu will continue to try and keep his job. He is not entirely wrong because he oversaw all sorts of change since 2010.

If the CHP chairperson were to reverse his policy of “making amends” he would have to risk losing the conservatives. If he were to distance himself from the HDP, he wouldn’t win over Turkish nationalists since the IP would take bold steps to attract that group. If the IP goes after right-wing secularist and nationalist voters alone, CHP would lose some of its secularist supporters.

The ongoing crisis among the opposition ranks might escalate to a whole new level if Akşener starts talking. The opposition bloc’s enlargement depends on the IP and the HDP instead of the CHP chairperson. In the end, the main opposition party will have to make additional concessions. It remains to be seen what the CHP will prove capable of doing in response to mounting criticism over “the non-opposition” and “the possibility of losing mayoral races in the absence of change.”

[Daily Sabah, June 24 2023]