Ripple effect: Unseen voters and drama of Türkiye’s election night

With less than 20 days before the Turkish elections, the People’s Alliance and the Nation Alliance continue campaigning, believing they are set to win. At the same time, pollsters continue to release numbers supporting both sides’ claim of imminent victory, making the campaign more tense and ambitious.

As supporters of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) experience a mix of anger (“enough is enough”) and hope (“we are coming to power”), they become eager to hold the current government accountable.

Meanwhile, the People’s Alliance is confident in an energetic President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and concerned about the possibility of an opposition victory jeopardizing Turkiye’s national security and territorial integrity.

Observers should expect to witness this emotional rollercoaster for the next three weeks as candidates make more and more campaign stops. It is highly likely that there will be an explosion of pledges, rhetorical battles and accusations.

Floating vote

Having consolidated their respective voter bases, President Erdoğan and his opponent, CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, are looking for ways to win over undecided voters. As the incumbent doubles down on his “politics of works” by attending three or four opening and groundbreaking ceremonies daily, he talks about his track record. He warns against the opposition’s lack of vision and lets terrorist organizations chart the country’s future.

Meanwhile, the Nation Alliance candidate pledges to raise funds abroad and attempts to connect with right-leaning voters with the help of Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, whom the opposition has identified as future vice presidents.

Everyone seems to agree that undecided voters will decide the May 14 elections in Türkiye. They will form the “groundswell” that both sides pray will be on their side on election day.

The question is how the so-called undecided voters, who may be reluctant to reveal their preference to pollsters, will make up their minds. Their decision will be informed by a blend of identity, the economy, security and leadership. They will make a rational decision about their country’s future, yet we cannot know which way they will go before the vote count.

Most silent voters, for whom pollsters cannot account, are expected to side with Erdoğan on election day.

Identity politics

Unlike the 2019 municipal elections, this year’s presidential and parliamentary races may be decided by identity issues and concerns over Türkiye’s future.

Kılıçdaroğlu accused the government of “treating the Kurds like terrorists” and publicly identified as Alevi to give additional momentum to the identity debate. His remarks were possibly intended to push back against the charge of “collaborating with terrorists” and address the concerns of right-wing voters, including the Good Party’s (IP) supporters, over their presidential candidate’s sectarian affiliation.

Ironically, such statements, which may have served Kılıçdaroğlu’s interests in due time, failed to make the desired impact on the electorate. The identity debate that the opposition candidate started created a new opportunity for the People’s Alliance.

After all, the People’s Alliance not only rejects the charge of “discrimination” but also accuses the opposition of fueling tensions over identity – without neglecting to remind voters that it was the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government that granted broader identity-related rights to the Kurdish and Alevi communities.

I believe that Kılıçdaroğlu severely underestimates the toll that his endorsement by the PKK terrorist group and the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) takes on his popular support. Right now, that endorsement steals the spotlight from the line of criticism from the People’s Alliance. What appears to be the discourse of security concerns, which does not involve discrimination, has an unexpected influence.

In the end, Kılıçdaroğlu may face severe backlash from silent voters for refusing to talk about counterterrorism measures and pledging to end the appointment of independent trustees to municipalities to secure the pro-PKK Peoples’ Democratic Party’s (HDP) support.

Last but not least, a word on the night of the election: Political parties and candidates are responsible for ensuring the accuracy of the vote count. It is equally important, however, for all sides to respect the people’s choices. Let us recall that the Turkish people shall punish any antidemocratic attempt to destabilize their country.

[Daily Sabah, April 26 2023]