We’re talking about the possibility of Israel’s attacks on Gaza triggering a regional war after October 7. Recent developments actually indicate that we are already in the midst of a regional war. However, the fluctuating intensity of such conflicts and the fact that the parties involved are not always clearly defined make it difficult to label it as a regional war. The evolution of warfare between countries, occurring in complex ways across different arenas and activating the capacities of various parties, has made traditional, all-encompassing wars increasingly rare. Many countries now prefer proxy wars due to their lower cost, lower risk, and deniability.
The beginning of a new era in the international system was marked by the United States’ claim during the invasion of Iraq that the existing UN resolutions were sufficient without the need for a UN intervention decision. The willingness of the U.S. to openly violate international order not only raised questions about the legitimacy of the system but also declared that a country’s ability to intervene militarily in another is more about power than legality. The consequences of the U.S. refusing to adhere to the rules of the order it established, insisting on the ‘freedom to act unilaterally,’ are evident in Ukraine and Gaza. Both instances highlight how the ability to ignore international law, rather than legal justifications, determines the strength of one’s position. The effect of the U.S. disregarding its own established rules, insisting on the ‘freedom to act unilaterally,’ can be seen in Ukraine and Gaza. Both instances highlight how the ability to ignore international law, rather than legal justifications, determines the strength of one’s position.
Netanyahu’s quest to expand the war
Despite signals from Israel of slowing down operations in Gaza, there are strong indications that this is a new preparation. While Biden resists making a ceasefire call, he also wants the humanitarian crisis and war crimes in Gaza to fade from the agenda due to electoral concerns. Those lobbying for Blinken’s efforts to minimize the impact of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and war crimes on Biden’s agenda have not been successful yet, but Israel is inclined to start narrowing down operations to reduce its losses and minimize the economic cost of mobilizing reserve forces. However, there is also a high probability that this change is an effort to regroup to focus on Hezbollah, the next target. Netanyahu’s efforts to stay in power by fighting against Hezbollah and Iran create an uneasy situation for Biden entering the election year.
Despite Biden’s open displeasure with Netanyahu’s uncontrolled actions, it has begun to be reflected in the American press. Some even interpret Blinken’s meeting with extreme right-wing leaders and the opposition during his visit to Israel as a preparation for an alternative to Netanyahu. Trying to show that the U.S. will protect Tel Aviv against any threats from the region, even by hitting the Houthis, is also a reason. Israel’s attacks threatening Hezbollah, along with Iran’s attacks in Northern Iraq and Idlib, show that the possibility of a regional war has now become a reality. Aware that ending Hamas in Gaza is not possible, Netanyahu, by regionalizing the conflict, has for now achieved his goal of preserving power.
The U.S. becomes a player in the war
Biden certainly does not want an uncontrolled regional war in the election year. However, by providing unwavering support to Netanyahu, he has, in fact, strengthened the possibility of a regional war that continues today. Despite the Biden administration’s refusal to pressure Netanyahu and its ongoing efforts to reduce the impact of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, it continues to fuel regional war by not making a ceasefire call and hitting the Houthis. As a result, the additional cost imposed by the Houthis on international trade, jeopardizing efforts in the U.S. to reduce inflation, could even cost Biden his re-election. If the intensity of the ongoing regional war increases or decreases, the U.S. will have no option other than to support Israel if a new Israel-Hezbollah war begins. Whether the ongoing war becomes a main actor in this election year, whether the U.S. becomes a part of this war or not, remains to be seen.
Biden’s ideologically entrenched unconditional support for Israel’s policy is turning the U.S. into a part of a regional war, abandoning the policy of shifting focus from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific. To overcome this dilemma, he needs to call for a ceasefire as soon as possible, exert pressure on the Netanyahu government even at the cost of its dissolution, and take a final step to truly bring about a two-state solution. These steps will reduce the intensity of the regional war but will not end it. Whether Biden has the intention or the political courage to make a radical policy change remains to be seen in the coming period. Whether the nightmare of handing over power to Trump forces Biden to change his policy on Palestine is yet to be seen.
