Will there be cease-fire in Gaza during Ramadan?

For the past five months, Israel has been targeting the innocent people of Gaza, with the United States and most Western governments continuing to mobilize their resources to support Israel’s brutal attacks against Gaza. By now, the attacks have become Israel’s longest intensive military operation against the Palestinians. On the one hand, while the Palestinian people are at their most vulnerable position and facing genocide, hundreds of millions of people around the world are chanting their just cause. On the other hand, as Israel continues its longest and most brutal attacks against the Palestinians, it has lost legitimacy not only in the eyes of the international community but also in the eyes of most of its supporters. It seems that this is the main paradox of post-Oct. 7. At this point, many observers ask whether Western governments are requesting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his associates to declare at least a temporary cease-fire throughout the holy month of Ramadan. Although there is no sign of persuading to put pressure on Israel, there are some reasons to be optimistic that Western countries may put pressure on Israel to declare a cease-fire during Ramadan. First of all, Western countries, including the U.S., will sooner or later have difficulty in providing the weapons and ammunition that Israel uses. It is clear to everybody that without the unwavering support of Western governments, it is impossible for Israel to continue its attacks against Palestinians. And also, it is clear that the resources of Western governments are not limitless. There are too many crisis areas in which Western governments provide weapons and ammunition. However, two of these crisis areas are the most significant, namely the Ukrainian-Russian war and Israel’s attacks against the Palestinian people. For instance, with the outbreak of the Gaza events, the Ukraine crisis lost its priority. Most Western countries have been mobilizing their resources for the support of Israel. With the decrease in support from Western countries, Ukraine’s resilience began to decline, and eventually, Ukraine began to weaken and began to lose the fight against Russia. The latest developments show that since the U.S. and the United Kingdom mobilized most of their resources for the support of Israel, two leading European countries, namely Germany and France, started to take the lead in the West's support for Ukraine. Second, the world's public opinion has already largely turned against Israel’s genocidal acts and its Western accomplices. The continuation of the attacks against innocent civilians during the holy month of Ramadan will further infuriate the world's public opinion. After the collapse of the Israeli and Western narrative, the whole world will turn against them. There will come a time when the West can no longer bear the costs of Israel’s atrocities and crossing the red lines of humanity.

Dilemma of U.S.

Third, the Joe Biden Administration faces a dilemma. On the one hand, the U.S. president will continue to provide unconditional support to Israel, since he needs the pro-Israeli lobby to win the next presidential elections that will be held next November. On the other hand, the continuation of military support to Israel further alienates a large part of his constituents. Most immigrants from the Muslim world, who largely voted for him in the last elections, will turn against him. Furthermore, the majority of the American youth are against Israel’s attacks against Palestinian people and oppose the U.S. support for the atrocities of Israel. One should not forget that former U.S. President Donald Trump lost the last elections by setting voting records. In other words, Trump received more votes than any previously elected U.S. president but still lost the elections, since Biden got more votes. It seems that Biden will not be that lucky to receive the same amount of votes. Finally, the continuation of the genocidal attacks and the starvation of the Gaza people will further outrage the Muslim people. Therefore, they will try to take some concrete steps. Within this context, the Muslim peoples around the world, those in the Arab countries in particular, will put pressure on their respective governments to strive for a cease-fire and to provide aid to the Gazan people. As a matter of fact, the Israeli government has recently been committing further brutalities against the Palestinians, especially during Ramadan. Because so far, no authority has even asked Israel to be careful about the severity, type or timing of its atrocities. This time, the conditions are quite different. One way or another, anti-Israel masses will combine their powers to resist the oppression and starvation of millions of Gazans. This is how to save humanity and human values against the transgressors. [Daily Sabah, March 13, 2024]