Why will CHP miss Kılıçdaroğlu?

The opposition increasingly opts to contest next year’s municipal elections “individually.” Following in the Good Paty’s (IP) footsteps, Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) chairperson Ali Babacan shut the door on a potential partnership with the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Recently, commentators have been arguing whether CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel would make an offer to right-wing fringe parties. Recalling that pro-change voices within the main opposition party had been critical of the “table for six” and DEVA, Babacan argued it would be a “contradiction” for Özel to enter into talks with them. That was hardly surprising considering that the former CHP chairperson, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, faced criticism over his decision to offer parliamentary seats to DEVA, the Felicity Party (SP), the Future Party (GP) and the Democratic Party (DP). Indeed, the pro-CHP media treated the right-wing fringe parties like parasites. If the relevant parties refuse to collaborate with CHP in the March 2024 election, those same outlets could complain about the vengeance or betrayal of the right-wingers. In other words, the opposition’s fragmentation and potential defeat (which starkly contrasts with the People’s Alliance remaining intact) might be blamed on the political right.

CHP’s strategic options

And what will be the options available to CHP if it fails to join forces with the IP and other right-wing parties? Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (HEDEP) is a new yet unofficial acronym for the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), the Worker Party (TIP) and other leftist fringe parties. In terms of party politics, that won’t be enough to win the mayoral races in Istanbul and Ankara. The CHP leadership believes that the solution is to “reach out to the Right with Leftist policies” and cooperate at the grassroots level. In truth, that is the outcome of failing to cooperate with other parties. Özgür Özel and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu were able to topple Kılıçdaroğlu by blaming the opposition’s most recent defeat on his leadership. Yet they face a greater challenge now due to the risk of losing some mayoral races by sticking to the former chairperson’s alliance policy. Accordingly, there is a chance that the new leadership could suffer a defeat humiliating enough to cause CHP members to urge Kılıçdaroğlu to come back. Obviously, the Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as HEDEP, might be open to a partnership with the CHP, conveniently ignoring the main opposition’s Faustian bargain with the right-wing extremist Umit Özdağ and citing the departure of Kılıçdaroğlu. Let’s not forget that Özel makes the “most progressive” arguments about the Kurdish question. What happens if CHP allies with just HEDEP and other leftist parties? The answer is simple. It will deprive itself of the opportunities and objectives stemming from its collaboration with right-wing parties. Moreover, CHP’s turn to the leftist ideology and association with the PKK and HEDEP would alienate right-leaning voters. Perhaps the main opposition party would turn to anti-Erdoğanism as a last resort to manage such risks. At least that’s how Imamoğlu is expected to design his campaign, overestimating himself: “I am competing with (President Recep Tayyip) Erdoğan, not the People’s Alliance candidate.”

Imamoğlu aims for 2019 election déjà vu

It goes without saying that Istanbul’s mayor would like the 2019 municipal election to repeat itself. This time around, though, millions of Istanbulites actually know how he performed over the last five years. To shift attention away from his poor track record, Imamoğlu hopes to persuade all those voters who supported Kılıçdaroğlu in May 2023 through anti-Erdoğanism. At this rate, Imamoğlu’s “Istanbul Alliance” and Özel’s plan to form bilateral or trilateral alliances in certain provinces will fall short of Kılıçdaroğlu’s “table for six.” The former CHP chair did everything possible to unite the opposition in May 2023. In the end, the resulting defeat led to his removal from office and revealed all the problems and lack of confidence among the opposition parties. To make matters worse, that debate became part and parcel of the power struggle within CHP. Both Özel and Imamoğlu could be compelled to foot that bill if the main opposition party loses in Istanbul and a new fight begins within their movement. [Daily Sabah, December 11, 2023]