Experts discussed ongoing Russia’s war in Ukraine and shared their expectations over the course of the war as part of a session of the Turkish national broadcaster TRT’s World Forum on Saturday.
Kilic Bugra Kanat, the research director of the SETA Foundation, said: “I think in 2023, the trajectory of the war will not only be shaped by the determination of Ukraine and Russia but at the same time, it will be shaped by those external factors and their reaction and their position in this world.”
At some point, we will see attrition, exhaustion and transitioning to something else. Perhaps even a ceasefire
Thomas Greminger, the director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, said that both sides of the war believe that the military momentum is still on their side.
The Russian Armed Forces continue to control separatist territories, while Ukrainian Armed Forces believe they can liberate the occupied territories, Greminger said and added that he does not think that is that it is going to change.
“At some point, we will see attrition, exhaustion and transitioning to something else. Perhaps even a ceasefire,” he added.
A fundamental peace treaty with Ukraine and Russia will happen
Ryszard Czarnecki, a member of the European Parliament, said that he does not believe a fundamental peace treaty with Ukraine and Russia will happen by Feb. 24, 2023, when the war will mark its first year.
“I think the most probable scenario is the ceasefire for a break for in reaction. So maybe a similar situation like in 2014 to 2022 between Ukraine and Russia,” Czarnecki said.
Russia is now entering a difficult period
For his part, Bruno Macaes, Portugal’s former minister of Europe, said that both sides of the war will focus more on the economic, industrial and political sides of the conflict by 2023.
It is important for Russia to build its alliance with Iran and for Ukraine to guarantee American support, which could shake if the Republicans come back to power, former President Donald Trump, in particular, Macaes said.
Regarding the would Ukraine’s economy survive this pressure, he said that the grain deal plays an “important” role for them and it would reduce some of the pressure on Ukraine’s economy, jobs and employment and so its economy would survive.
He noted that Russia is now entering a difficult period with oil prices going up.
The TRT World Forum 2022, a two-day annual event, started in Istanbul on Friday.
The gathering, which is held under the theme of Mapping the Future: Uncertainties, Realities and Opportunities this year, brings together academics, journalists, intellectuals, politicians, and members of civil society from around the globe.
Nearly 100 speakers and over 1,000 participants from nearly 40 countries are attending the forum, according to Mehmet Zahid Sobaci, the director general of TRT, Türkiye’s public broadcaster.
The forum featured sessions on various subjects, such as the Ukraine-Russian war, global migration, and the energy crisis, as well as disinformation.
The event was held in person this year after it was held virtually for the past two years due to the COVID-19 pandemic.