The recent developments in the Middle East region have led to a deepening instability, with the possibility of conflict increasing day by day. In 2023, we witnessed a period of relative normalization in the Middle East. While countries in the region were trying to minimize the potential for conflict, they had come a long way in developing common potential.
Before Oct. 7, the situation was as follows: There were peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis to end the war in Yemen; a process was being managed between Saudi Arabia and Israel to determine when normalization would take place; and a further progressive normalization process was occurring between Türkiye and Israel. After Oct. 7, however, this regional geopolitical trend changed dramatically.
Again, before Oct. 7, there was a competitive but non-confrontational strategic environment in the Middle East in terms of relatively armed nonstate actors. There was a downward acceleration of the confrontational trend in the Middle East context, including terrorist organizations. In other words, there was a relatively static situation in the mobilization of these actors. However, a new mobilization process started after Oct. 7. Hamas, Hezbollah, extremist militias, terrorist organizations like the PKK terrorist group and its Syrian affiliate, the YPG, Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen became part of a new confrontational process. Now, we are once again witnessing the re-mobilization of nonstate armed actors and terrorist organizations across a wide geography, stretching from Lebanon to Yemen.
Escalating regional instability
The PKK terrorist organization, with its attacks in northern Iraq in the last month, has shown that it seeks to take advantage of the newly emerging regional instability. The terrorist attacks prompted Türkiye to launch a comprehensive military campaign in Iraq and Syria. Ankara will likely conduct a more intensive military, intelligence and diplomatic campaign against the PKK in Syria and Iraq to maintain its supremacy in the fight against terrorism. After the terrorist attacks in Iran, Tehran’s attacks on northern Iraq and Pakistan have led to the dominance of military security trends and geopolitical conflicts for Iran as well. The United States airstrikes against the Houthis’ activities in the Red Sea have turned the problem in Yemen into an active conflict. The U.S. reinstatement of the Houthis on the terrorist list has destroyed the peace process in Yemen, which will ultimately shape the very nature of the conflict.
The third point is that there has been a significant change in the regional policies of extra-regional states compared to the pre-Oct. 7 period. Before Oct. 7, the U.S. shifted its focus to Ukraine and China, while China paid more attention to the Middle East as a political and economic player. From the perspective of European countries, there was an understanding that Ukraine was a much higher priority security issue than the Middle East. On the other hand, Russia was trying to keep its interest in the Middle East alive due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. It tried to deepen its economic and political relations with the Gulf countries. The developments of the last two months point to a reversal of the regional trend. The U.S. has been forced to reassert its presence in the region for the sake of Israel’s security. This has ended the discussions on changing the strategic engagement of the U.S. in the Middle East, which it had been pursuing for some time. Europe lost its focus on Ukraine. China has turned into an actor following the developments.
Shift in Mideast’s military conflicts, geopolitical trends
These developments indicate a significant change in military conflicts and geopolitical trends in the Middle East. The first of these is directed toward Iran. After Oct. 7, Iran can be labeled as one of the most critical countries in the conflict axis. This is because the U.S. and Israel have targeted Iran in terms of its confrontational dynamics, which have become evident in the context of Hamas, Hezbollah, militias and the Houthis. The predominant view in the U.S. is that Iran is the real problem and this may lead the U.S. to take tougher steps against Iran. If Iran takes advantage of the turmoil in the region to move to a new stage in its nuclear program and takes a radical step toward nuclear armament, it could radically change the possible developments in the Iranian issue.
The resurgence of nonstate armed actors and terrorist organizations (such as the PKK and Daesh) and the re-acceleration of the terrorism trend in the Middle East are driving countries facing the threat of terrorism toward a different military engagement. Such a process is likely to militarize the region’s conflictual environment. As of today, many countries have increased their military operations and military engagements in the region. Türkiye’s operations in northern Iraq and Syria, Jordan’s operations in Syria, Iran’s operations in Iraq and Syria, and the U.S. operations in Syria, Iraq and Yemen are among the most important ones. From the U.S. perspective, the most critical issue is the weakening of its military deterrence credibility. While attacks against the U.S. in Iraq continue, maritime trade has come to a standstill despite American military protection and airstrikes against the Houthis. This puts serious pressure on American deterrence.
In conclusion, we are currently experiencing a phase in which the security landscape in the Middle East is progressively becoming more militarized. Should the ongoing Israeli aggression in Gaza persist, the conflict will probably escalate and extend throughout the entire region.
