What’s the motive behind Erdoğan’s remarks on EU membership?

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan started a new debate ahead of this week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Commenting on Sweden’s bid to join the Alliance, he argued that the relevant countries should “clear Türkiye’s path to European Union (EU) membership.” That statement aligned perfectly well with the readout of Erdoğan’s most recent phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden. One might be inclined to assume that Ankara’s request to jumpstart its accession process was a response to Washington’s efforts to link Sweden’s membership to the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye. Indeed, President Biden talked about the F-16 deal in conjunction with Sweden and Greece in a recent interview with CNN International. I argue, however, that such arguments offer very limited insight into the situation. Ahead of the Vilnius Summit, President Erdoğan demonstrated his will to rebuild Türkiye’s relations with the West on a new foundation. Having just been re-elected for five years, he wants to rekindle his country’s ties with NATO, the United States, and the EU. Specifically, Erdoğan seeks to remove all immovable obstacles and all sorts of sanctions that Türkiye continues to bear. That is why he used Sweden’s membership bid to remind Türkiye’s NATO allies about its security concerns and defensive needs. The Turkish President has also highlighted the need for a qualitative change in NATO and the EU’s policies toward his country.

Adapting to multipolar world order

At a time when all international stakeholders seek to adapt to the emerging multipolar world order, it is necessary for Türkiye’s Western allies to interpret Erdoğan’s remarks on EU membership accurately. By making that statement, Erdoğan did not seek to drive a hard bargain, nor did he intend to block NATO’s enlargement in any way. It would have been understandable for the Western media, taken aback at Erdoğan’s unexpected remarks, to characterize his move as making an additional request. Yet Türkiye has always acted rationally vis-à-vis NATO, to which it actively contributed for 71 years, and its strategic objective of EU membership. Indeed, the country acted rationally despite some NATO and EU members approaching counterterrorism measures in ways that contradicted the spirit of the alliance. It is important to recall that Türkiye reiterated its commitment to NATO’s open door policy by signing a trilateral memorandum at the Madrid Summit and giving the green light to Finland’s membership bid. Today, Erdoğan urges NATO, which became more relevant due to the Ukraine war and the U.S.-China rivalry, to grow stronger by considering the priorities of key allies like Türkiye. In other words, he engages in constructive criticism, demanding a more just world order and calling for United Nations reform. Accordingly, Washington and Brussels must develop a new paradigm on Ankara without further delay. Reconsidering Türkiye’s role within the Western alliance based on the spirit of alliance and geopolitical interests would generate strategic gains for the Turks, NATO and the EU. Ignoring that context to link Swedish membership to Türkiye’s defensive needs, including F-16 fighters, would amount to misunderstanding Erdoğan’s remarks.

A balanced policy between West, Russia

Let us recall that President Erdoğan hosted his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, just before the Vilnius Summit and publicly stated that Kyiv had earned the right to join NATO. He also stressed on the importance of defense cooperation between the two nations. He handed over commanders of the Azov Brigade, whom Türkiye had been hosting as part of the prisoner exchange with Russia, to the Ukrainian leader. In light of those developments, it is possible to argue that the Turkish President remains committed to a balanced policy between the West and Russia. Another important point is that Türkiye does not consider itself a passive mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Instead, it remains the most vocal advocate of a diplomatic solution. Despite refusing to join sanctions against Russia, the country strongly supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and addresses its security and defensive needs. That policy of active balancing is rooted in President Erdoğan’s experience and exceptional leader-to-leader diplomacy. I would say that the Turkish leader will continue to surprise foreign governments by taking additional steps. [Daily Sabah, July 12, 2023]