After approval of Sweden’s NATO bid and Raisi’s visit

As the municipal election campaign gained momentum with the unveiling of mayoral candidates and the fine-tuning of their campaigns, two major developments took place in foreign policy: the Turkish Parliament’s approval of Sweden’s NATO admission on Tuesday and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to the Turkish capital, where Türkiye and Iran signed 10 agreements.

Parliament’s decision caught hardly anyone by surprise, as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Joe Biden had agreed to approve Sweden’s admission and the sale of F-16 fighter jets simultaneously. Indeed, President Biden sent a letter to senior members of Congress on Wednesday urging them to approve the sale. With the ball in Washington’s court, the Biden administration is expected to push the F-16 sale through Congress. Failing to overcome the resistance of lobbyists, the White House will have to bypass Congress to complete the sale.

Unfulfilled pledges threatening Türkiye-U.S. ties

Obviously, failure to keep that promise would seriously undermine Turkish-American relations. Türkiye signed off on Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership based on their pledge to fight terrorism. As such, absolutely nothing would excuse Washington’s failure to keep its promises.

A potential “accident” at Congress regarding the F-16 deal – possibly the only positive aspect of a relationship strained by disagreements over the PKK’s Syrian affiliate, the YPG, the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) and the F-35 program – would be reminiscent of the infamous Rogers Plan, fueling anti-American sentiment in Türkiye. In truth, the F-16 sale could generate positive momentum and that is why the Biden administration should be expected to throw its weight behind the deal.

Raisi’s visit to Türkiye, which was postponed twice, took place at a time when Iran finds itself at the center of attention – with Israel determined to target Iran and its proxies and the United States and the United Kingdom striking the Houthis over and over again.

Bilateral cooperation in the fight against terrorism, energy and transport was among the top items on the agenda as the Iranian president visited the Turkish capital to attend the eighth meeting of the Türkiye-Iran High-Level Cooperation Council.

Cracking down on terrorism remains critically important for both nations. Let us recall that Daesh carried out a terrorist attack in Kerman, Iran on Jan. 3 and Türkiye lost nine soldiers in northern Iraq due to a PKK attack on Jan. 12.

Raisi’s visit: Shaping Türkiye-Iran ties

Will Raisi’s visit mark the beginning of a new period of cooperation between Türkiye and Iran – especially in the area of counterterrorism? Will competition or cooperation define the relationship between Ankara and Tehran?

As Israel and the United States target Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” there is reason to expect Tehran to turn to Ankara in an attempt to prevent its isolation. It is nonetheless necessary to closely monitor what the Iranians say and do. We cannot expect Iran to revise its policies in Iraq and Syria, which are opposed to Türkiye’s policies, due to domestic ideological-political concerns and its local proxies. The only game-changer would be Tehran adopting a stronger stance regarding the PKK and its Iranian component PJAK. It remains to be seen whether Raisi’s visit will lead to such changes.

Finally, the U.S. presidential election will play a defining role in the future of the Middle East. The likelihood of Donald Trump’s victory fuels uncertainty and creates opportunities for countries in the region. That U.S. media outlets already discussing Washington’s retreat from Iraq and Syria is certainly interesting. Either the Biden administration is looking for something to exploit on the campaign trail or some folks in Washington are preparing for the Trump presidency.

[Daily Sabah, January 26, 2024]