The nationwide vote share of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the 30 March 2014 local administrations election in Turkey is predicted based on historical patterns rather than poll data. If history is any guide, barring any extraordinary shocks, the AKP should receive about 45 percent of the vote in the upcoming election, or 5 percentage points less than in the previous election. The election being for local administrations rather than parliament, and the economy, while being good, not being as good as in 2011 mainly accounts for this possible change in election result. This panel will discuss what the elections results can possibly be and what to expect as an outcome. Among the questions asked:

Since the introduction of multi-party system, what have been the primary factors affecting the voters’ behavior in each election cycle in Turkey?
What are the main factors that will affect the electorate’s behavior in the March 30 local elections?
How much the recent events are likely to affect the outcome of the local elections?

We very much hope you will be able to attend this special event.

Note: Panel discussion will be held in English and Turkish.