NATO’s 2025 Annual Report indicates that the global security environment has entered a new era shaped both by temporary tensions and by persistent and structural competition. This characterization by NATO shows the security architecture has moved beyond a one-dimensional perception of military threats. In this new equation, threats progress simultaneously and in a complementary manner through not only military conflicts such as war and terrorism, but also cyberattacks, sabotage targeting critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and hybrid warfare techniques.
Defense Expenditures in NATO Countries
The numerical scale of this transformation is clearly observable in the increase in defense expenditures. As of 2025, total defense spending exceeding $1.4 trillion demonstrates that the weight of defense expenditures within the global economy has significantly increased. The agreement among member states to allocate 5% of their GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to defense and security by 2035 shows that this transformation has been tied to an institutional target. It is observed that 70% of this share is directed toward direct military capacity, while the remaining portion is allocated to infrastructure, innovation, and industrial bases that enhance defense effectiveness. Such expenditures are possibly to contribute to the development of economic capacity.
Türkiye and NATO have showed a significant convergence in the share of defense expenditures within GDP around the 2% defense spending target, which has been a reference point since the 2014 Wales Summit. While both Türkiye and the European and Canadian average were below this threshold in 2014, NATO’s overall average was approximately 2.6%, above the 2% level.
For Türkiye, the share of defense expenditures in gross domestic product, which was around 1.4% in 2014, gradually increased over time and reached approximately 2.3% in 2024, thus exceeding the 2% target. This indicates a structural expansion in Türkiye’s defense spending.
The overall NATO average increased from approximately 2.6% in 2014 to around 2.8% in 2024, showing that the 2% target has effectively been surpassed across the alliance. This increase has been largely driven by the expansion of defense spending in European countries due to recent developments in their neighboring regions. In particular, the Russia–Ukraine War has been a key driver of accelerating defense expenditures. As is known, at NATO’s 2022 Madrid Summit, Russia was classified as “the most significant and direct threat.” Criticism of NATO by U.S. President Trump has also been among the factors affecting defense spending and its distribution.
In summary, in recent years, NATO’s 2% target has shifted from being a benchmark to a de facto minimum level, indicating a transformation process in which Türkiye has exceeded this threshold and converged toward the NATO average. However, it should be emphasized that there is still a long way to go for all NATO countries to reach the 5% target.
Türkiye’s Perspective on Defense Spending
The increase in military expenditures, including those of Türkiye, brings about a structural transformation in defense planning. Faster response capabilities and multi-domain operational integration covering land, sea, air, and space are becoming fundamental elements of the new era. At the same time, factors such as production capacity in the defense industry, supply chain security, and technological superiority are being positioned as strategic priorities beyond traditional military planning. As noted by NATO Secretary General Rutte during his visit to Ankara on April 22, 2026, Türkiye is among the key global actors in the defense industry thanks to its innovation capacity.
The NATO Summit planned to be held in Ankara in 2026 stands out as a critical threshold where the relationship between security and the economy will be placed within a more institutional framework. One of the main topics expected to come to the forefront at the summit is the feasibility of NATO’s 5% defense spending target for member countries and its macroeconomic implications. Increasing defense budgets directly affect growth dynamics through expanding production capacity, rising employment, and high value-added industrial investments. In this context, the defense industry is evolving from being a traditional security sector into a strategic component of economic development through its innovation capacity.
Another topic likely to gain prominence is the growing role of R&D and innovation. Advanced technologies prioritized by NATO—such as artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, cybersecurity, and space technologies—not only provide military superiority but also create a strong multiplier effect that spills over into the civilian economy. This demonstrates that defense-driven investments feed a broader technological ecosystem and support long-term competitiveness by enhancing innovation capacity. In particular, the increasing prevalence of dual-use technologies shows that the boundaries between military and civilian sectors are becoming increasingly blurred.
In this context, the composition of Türkiye’s defense expenditures reveals a clear and well-directed transformation. While personnel expenditures accounted for approximately 57% in 2014, this share is estimated to decline to around 40% by 2025. Meanwhile, equipment, infrastructure, and other expenditure items are gaining increasing importance. This picture clearly demonstrates a strong transition from a labor-intensive defense structure to a technology-intensive, high value-added model.
At this point, the increase in infrastructure spending is particularly noteworthy. This ratio, which fluctuated between 2–3% during the 2014–2020 period, rose to the 7–9% range after 2021, indicating an acceleration in R&D activities in the defense field. This development implies deepening in areas such as testing and validation centers, software development capacity, electronic warfare infrastructure, and system integration. As a result, the defense industry is also strengthening its ability to produce knowledge and technology.
The trend in equipment expenditures indicates that platform investments in the defense industry are gaining momentum. In this framework, Türkiye is increasing its production and development capacity across a wide range of areas, including unmanned aerial vehicles, national combat aircraft projects, helicopter platforms, armored land vehicles, air defense systems, and naval platforms such as aircraft carriers. Satellite systems, radar technologies, and cyber defense solutions are also gaining importance as complementary elements of this ecosystem. This diversification reflects the technological advancement of the defense industry.
The “other expenditures” category exceeding 25% in the 2025 estimate indicates that the defense ecosystem is becoming more comprehensive. Areas such as logistics, maintenance and repair, software, artificial intelligence, data management, and cybersecurity are becoming increasingly critical, demonstrating that the modern understanding of defense is not limited to platform production alone.
In summary, a profound paradigm shift is taking place in Türkiye’s defense expenditure structure. The share of personnel is decreasing, R&D and infrastructure investments are accelerating, and platform development capacity is continuously expanding. This transformation clearly shows that Türkiye is becoming an actor that produces high value-added output, develops technology, and gains global competitiveness in the defense industry.
Türkiye’s performance in the defense industry also implies a transformation in its export structure. According to data from the Ankara Chamber of Industry, while the average export value per kilogram in Türkiye is around $1.57, this figure exceeds $65 in the defense and aerospace industry. This represents not only an economic success but also a critical transformation that strengthens Türkiye’s strategic position within the global defense ecosystem. The high value-added output achieved in defense and aerospace has made Türkiye not only a market but also an actor that produces technology and offers solutions.
In recent years, domestically developed systems have enabled Türkiye to produce platforms that contribute to NATO operations, comply with interoperability standards, and have proven effectiveness in the field. This situation increases Türkiye’s military and technological weight within the alliance while also turning defense industry exports into a strategic policy tool.
The Future of Defense Spending
Türkiye’s increasing R&D capacity, engineering capabilities, and production infrastructure have also created an important alternative within NATO supply chains. In today’s geopolitical environment, where supply security, flexibility, and resilience to crises are at the forefront, Türkiye’s capacity to develop high value-added defense products provides a critical advantage for the alliance’s collective defense architecture. In this context, Türkiye is evolving from being merely a consumer of security into a country that produces and exports security.
From a broader perspective, NATO appears to interpret the global system not only through military threats but also through production capacity, technological superiority, and economic resilience. The Ankara Summit has the potential to be a critical turning point where this approach is translated into concrete policy tools and where the integration between security and the economy becomes more visible and measurable. In this respect, the summit will provide important insights not only into security policies but also into the future of the global economic order amid ongoing wars and high uncertainty.
In conclusion, the structural challenges NATO faces through two different conflicts centered on Ukraine and Iran present strategic opportunities for Türkiye. Standing on the side of peace and diplomacy, Türkiye is gaining a stronger position within the alliance thanks to its increasing R&D capacity, high value-added production, and expanding platform diversity in the defense industry. Pursuing a balanced diplomacy that advocates the principle of equality within NATO’s institutional framework and deepening defense cooperation are of great importance for Türkiye. Continuing to raise the standards of domestic defense technologies, diversifying export markets, and maintaining a flexible yet principled security approach in crisis regions will further strengthen Türkiye’s position. Within this framework, Türkiye will continue to maintain its potential to be a decisive actor in the evolving global security architecture through its production power, geopolitical position, and balancing role.
