President Biden’s message during his visit to a church in the state of South Carolina and the reactions of some protesters seemed like a summary of the dilemma he will face in preparing for the presidential elections. In 2015, a perpetrator advocating white supremacy killed 9 black citizens who came to the church for worship, a message that was discussed in the public eye as a result of Trump’s message on the eve of the 2016 presidential elections. By starting his 2024 campaign with a visit to this church, Biden tried to show that black votes would be critical. By making a reference to Trump’s expressions about immigrants ‘poisoning’ the country’s blood, he conveyed the message that the real ‘poison’ is the idea of white supremacy. The messages given to the political electorate in South Carolina, a critical state that brought Biden to candidacy in 2016, stand out as an effort to reach out to black voters, which will play a critical role in the upcoming election.
During his speech at the church, in response to a group of Democrats shouting ‘immediate ceasefire’ for Palestine, Biden responded by urging the Israeli government to reduce the intensity of the conflict and withdraw from Gaza. Although Biden acknowledged the ‘passion’ of the protesters on this issue, his statement indicates awareness of the Palestinian reaction within the party, but he did not make a serious effort to reduce this reaction. On the contrary, by supporting Israel’s Gaza operations and ignoring ceasefire calls, he insisted, but it is clear that this did not work as protests continue. Public opinion polls showing a decrease in support for Biden among black and Palestine-sensitive young voters indicate that it will be difficult for Biden to unite the party without taking a critical step on the Israel issue.
BLINKEN’S MIDDLE EAST TOUR
As President Biden tries to rally groups that have become alienated within the party in the election year, it is clear that he does not want the conflict environment in the Middle East to expand in a way that will draw the U.S. in. The Israeli government is aware that the war in Gaza cannot be sustained at this level, as previously declared 380,000 reservists called up to the army and actively participating in the war are not sustainable. It is known that this number has decreased to the 170,000 levels and is expected to decrease to 100,000. The Israeli army is aware that the high mobilization that has been going on for three months cannot be sustained for a long time due to the heavy burden on the economy. Therefore, the Israeli administration plans a limited and sustainable conflict process in Gaza, focusing on Hamas leadership. It can be said that Tel Aviv and Washington have agreed on this strategy and think it can be sustained by providing more humanitarian aid.
On the other hand, politicians in the Israeli cabinet are more willing to expand the war to Iran in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Israeli politicians who think that Israel will eventually have to fight with Hezbollah are increasing pressure on Lebanon. Israel, which wants Hezbollah to withdraw further into Lebanon from the south, has threatened to turn Beirut into Gaza and has recently signed the assassination of Hamas leader Aruri. The Biden administration will act with the instinct to protect Israel from going to war with Hezbollah and has tried to manage this possibility by sending Blinken back to the region. Despite the desire to resist going to war with Iran in the Middle East, an image of the U.S. entering into conflict to protect Israel would not be ideal for Biden entering the election year.
ELECTION YEAR
Biden’s encounter with Palestine protests in South Carolina, where he launched his election campaign, summarized the critical dynamics of this election. Biden, who needs the overwhelming support of black voters and the excitement of young Democrats, faces problems with these two critical groups. With support decreasing among black and Hispanic voters, Biden faces a Trump who increases acceptance among these groups. Trump, who politically benefits from many lawsuits filed against him, is making headlines over issues such as the cost of living and the immigration crisis. It is difficult to know how much the theses trying to portray Trump, who is on par with Biden in critical states, as someone with dictatorial aspirations are accepted among voters. We know that women voters have serious resistance to Trump.
In Biden’s success in 2016, building a broad coalition that could attract black, female, young, and Hispanic votes played a key role. It will be difficult for him to bring this coalition together again with the same enthusiasm. Both black and young voters have a significant response to the thesis that Israel is committing genocide and America directly supports it. Expecting that Biden’s expression of sensitivity to the Israel issue without changing policy will be enough would be a mistake. It can be said that the Biden administration is focusing on forgetting Gaza and managing the possibility of regional war to reduce the impact of the Palestinian issue on the presidential elections. It is not unlikely that this strategy, insisting on not changing Israel’s policy, will be rejected by black and young voters.
