Opinion
Call for unity: Lessons from the past in Turkish politics

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent call to “consolidate the domestic front,” followed by the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli’s support for the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) in pursuit of a “terror-free Türkiye” has naturally sparked discussions about future scenarios.

Geopolitical tensions: Middle East in global rivalry

With the full and unconditional support of the United States and Western European countries, the Israeli government has been attacking Middle Eastern countries and committing genocide against Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip. The first step of Israel’s expansionist policies in the Middle East has been the increased occupation of Palestinian lands.

Türkiye's political shift amidst terror attack on TUSAŞ

In the last week, a series of events has unfolded in Türkiye. First, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) chairman Devlet Bahçeli, one of the key partners of the People’s Alliance, made a surprise statement in the Turkish Grand National Assembly, demanding that PKK founder Abdullah Öcalan, who has been imprisoned in a high-security prison since 1999, call on the PKK to “lay down arms and end terrorism.” More interestingly, Bahçeli suggested that Öcalan should come to parliament and make this call from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) party’s platform. This development has led to interpretations that a new process may have begun.

Germany's blind spot on human rights

In Gaza, Israel violates human rights and international law, while Germany turns a blind eye – prompting Erdoğan to highlight this hypocrisy

Who can stop Israel?

The genocide Palestinians are living through has divided the world into two: the oppressors and the ones who fight against them

Is the real issue the humanitarian crisis in Gaza or the US elections?

It’s hard to believe that the Biden administration’s letter suggesting that military aid to Israel could be halted unless humanitarian aid flows into Gaza isn’t tied to the upcoming U.S. elections.

Report
Israel’s Attacks on Gaza Since October 7, 2023 and International Law

The present Report examines Israel’s attacks from legal perspective depend ing on the relevant rules of international law. In this sense, the Report handles three main issues. The first is whether Israel’s attacks can be justified on the basis of the right to self-defense. The second concerns the violations of international humanitarian law and the related crimes resulting from the violations. Finally, the Report evaluates the ongoing judicial processes initiated against or related to Israel.

Analyzing Trends, Threats and Adaptations | Navigating Security in Flux: Countering the PKK in 2023

Amid regional turmoil, Türkiye’s strategic security outlook remains focused on countering terrorism, particularly the PKK. Against the backdrop of ongoing conflicts in Syria and Iraq, Türkiye confronts the persistent threat of mass migration and instability spillover. In response, Türkiye has implemented measures to secure its borders, including the establishment of buffer zones within Iraqi territory to prevent terrorist infiltration.

One Year At War | The Past, Present and Future of Sudan’s Civil War and Proposed Solutions

One year after the outbreak of the civil war on April 15, 2023, this report examines the origins of the crisis in Sudan, its cost and key actors, the policies and objectives of international powers in the country, and the steps and initiatives taken to resolve the conflict. It also considers the potential for a new Darfur crisis in the future and offers policy recommendations for resolving the current crisis.

SETA Security Radar | Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024

In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2023.

Remote Control | Aerial Elimination of the PKK’s Terrorist Leaders and Operatives

Delving into the core of this study, we leverage data derived from two distinguished repositories—the Terrorism Analysis Platform and Türkiye’s Enemy Killed in Action Dataset—to compose an authoritative report. Our focus lies on the profound examination of the intricate effects of UAV deployment in counterterrorism endeavors, particularly pertaining to the PKK’s organizational structure, command hierarchy, recruitment of skilled human resources, access to essential material resources, and the dynamic tactical metamorphosis undergone by the terrorist organization. Through this rigorous analysis, we aim to shed illuminating light on the multifaceted role of UAVs and their profound impact on the protracted battle against terrorism.

Quantum Technologies | SETA Emerging Military Technologies Series .4.

This study discusses in detail the historical development of quantum technology and its military and civilian applications as well as potential future developments.

Analysis
The Point of No Return | How the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Will Reshape Global Sustainability and Energy Policy

The election outcomes between former President Donald J. Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris represent divergent paths that will reshape domestic policies and international approaches to climate change, energy production, and sustainable development policymaking

Yahya Sinwar and the New Era in Hamas

This analysis begins by examining Hamas’s motivations behind electing Sinwar as the new leader and considers his potential to exert a Yasser Arafat-like influence in Palestinian politics, given his distinct personal traits and strong grassroots appeal

The Ankara Process: Can the Somalia-Ethiopia Tension Be Resolved through Türkiye’s Efforts?

The main disagreements between the two countries are historical, religious, border, strategic and political issues.

Crossing the Rubicon | Consumption Costs of Artificial Intelligence and Environmental Security

This analysis delves into the intricate relationship between AI, its energy consumption, and environmental security. By examining current research and integrating new analytical insights, this analysis seeks to underscore the urgent need for sustainable AI development and the establishment of international regulatory frameworks to mitigate its environmental impact.

Historical Landmark in Türkiye-Iraq Relations and Opportunity for Strategic Partnership

This study argues that the problems between Erbil and Baghdad, and their prolonged existence prevent Türkiye from deepening cooperation with Iraq in terms of security, water issues, and economic relations

Assessing Türkiye’s Role in the Global Space Competition

This analysis evaluates Türkiye’s national space program, its milestones, and strategic initiatives, like sending its first citizen to the International Space Station (ISS), within the context of the new space race.

Perspective
The Future of AI Policies in the US And Implications for Türkiye

What are Trump and Harris’ positions on AI? How might each of their policies influence the United States’ role in AI development and regulation on the international stage? How Should Türkiye Respond to Respective Policies?

Promise of the LLMs: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

How can Large Language Models (LLMs) enhance diplomacy, international cooperation, and economic productivity? What are the potential risks and challenges associated with the deployment of LLMs in military and diplomatic decision-making? What legal and ethical considerations arise from the widespread use of LLMs, and how can these be addressed?

The Suspension of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)

What is the significance of the CFE? Which countries suspended or has withdrawn from the CFE? Why did Turkiye suspend the practice of the CFE? Can Turkiye start an armament program exceeding the existing limits of the CFE? What could be the impact of Turkiye’s suspension?

Artificial Intelligence in Counterterrorism Navigating the Intersection of Security, Ethics and Privacy

How can Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies be used effectively for counterterrorism efforts? How does the quality of data affect the effectiveness of AI in counterterrorism? What are the ethical and privacy considerations in using AI for counterterrorism?

Navigating the EU AI Act: Exploring Challenges Amidst the Evolving Global Regulatory Landscape

What is the EU AI Act? What are the main challenges it may face? What is the impact of this regulation within the global regulatory landscape?

Habermas and Others | The West’s Intellectual World and Blindness Toward Palestine

What was the post-Oct. 7 stance of Western thinkers and intellectuals? Why does the Western intellectual world ignore Palestine? Why have thinkers, who believe the Palestinians are right and support them, become targets of ‘lynching’?

The Future of AI Policies in the US And Implications
Perspective

The Future of AI Policies in the US And Implications for Türkiye

What are Trump and Harris’ positions on AI? How might each of their policies influence the United States’ role in AI development and regulation on the international stage? How Should Türkiye Respond to Respective Policies?


September 2024

Focus
A Storm of Conflict: Analyzing the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Post-October 2023

On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian group Hamas launched a major attack on Israeli settlements near Gaza. This unexpected operation drew global attention and led to a series of responses from Israeli officials and their allies. Following this event, the Middle East experienced a significant escalation in regional conflicts, particularly involving Hezbollah, a Lebanese group with close ties to Iran.

Apple’s Personalized Intelligence and Its Repercussions

When Apple incorporated Siri into its systems in 2011, it was considered a milestone in Artificial Intelligence (AI) development. This achievement marked the culmination of extensive research and development in natural language processing (NLP) and voice recognition technologies, demonstrating significant advancements in making AI more accessible and user-friendly to everyday consumers.

Focus: An Insight into Pakistan Election 2024

Pakistan held its highly anticipated 12th general elections on Feb. 8, 2024. The polls took place amid a highly schismatic atmosphere, political fluidity, intense economic turbulence, and pressing security concerns. Despite some extreme political repressions and the absence of a level playing field, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan stole the show by claiming 93 seats out of 265 contestable seats. It left behind seasoned, traditional political parties like Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) with 75, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) with 54 and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (P) with just 17 seats in the National Assembly (NA). A simple majority in parliament necessitates a mandate of 169 seats, including 70 reserve seats, as per the strength of each party in the NA.

Assessing the US Executive Order on AI from a Global Perspective

On October 30, 2023, President Biden took a significant step by signing an executive order that charts a course for the utilization of AI in the United States, aiming to both harness its potential and mitigate the associated risks. Before this directive, it's crucial to note that President Trump made history by signing two executive orders in 2019 and 2020, marking the initial official forays into AI governance by an American president. Trump's focus primarily centered on how the government uses AI and strategies to maintain U.S. leadership in this field. In contrast, since assuming office, President Biden's official approach to AI has predominantly emphasized ethical and responsible implementation. His primary focus is ensuring that the application of AI adheres to ethical standards and societal responsibility, particularly in its impact on American citizens.

How to Understand Erdoğan-Musk Meeting: Main Agenda and Its Significance

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrived in New York on Sunday to participate in the 78th United Nations General Assembly. During the visit, he is also set to hold a series of meetings with world leaders and influential entrepreneurs. One of the meetings garnering significant attention was the one between President Erdoğan and Elon Musk, the renowned founder of Tesla and SpaceX.

"African Spring"? or the "Spring of Coups"?: The Meaning of Developments in Africa

The African continent is currently facing a series of major problems and challenges today. Among them is a growing trend of military interventions particularly in West Africa and the Sahel region, the latest of which has taken place in the Central African country of Gabon. It was reportedly carried out under the leadership of General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema. After Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger, Gabon saw the eighth such incident since 2020 and it seems to have created a "coup ecosystem" in the continent. However, the development in Gabon should not be considered the same as Niger because the former has a structure other than the dynamics in Niger. The reasons for the intervention in Gabon also differ from the intervention in Niger. In this context, the Gabonese military intervention emerged due to political elections, while security concerns and poor governance drove the interventions in Niger and some other countries. After it was announced that Ali Bongo, who has been in power in Gabon for 14 years, received 64% of the votes in the elections held on Aug. 26, the army announced it had seized power. "On behalf of Gabonese people, we have decided to put an end to the current regime and defend peace," the group within the army said, adding that the election results were shady and the elections were to be canceled. However, it should be noted that the group within the army is led by Ali Bongo's cousin Nguema.

Q&A
Q&A: Çağlayan Courthouse Attack

What happened? Who are the attackers? What was the goal of the attack? How is Türkiye combating DHKP-C? What does this mean for the future?

Q&A: Turkish Foreign Minister’s Visit to Washington

What is the background and significance of the Turkish foreign minister’s visit to Washington? What are the differences and similarities between the two countries’ Ukraine policies? Will the U.S. sell F-16s to Türkiye? What is Türkiye’s position on Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership? What is Washington’s view on Türkiye’s engagement with the Syrian regime?

Q&A: Bayraktar AKINCI UCAV | A New Period in Unmanned Air Warfare

When did the journey of the Bayraktar AKINCI UCAV begin? What were the successes of Bayraktar AKINCI during its development process? What are the advanced and technical specifications of Bayraktar AKINCI? Which operational capabilities of Bayraktar AKINCI come to the fore? What kind of capability transformation will AKINCI introduce to the TAF?

5 Questions: Political and Legal Meaning of U.S. President Biden’s Statement on the So-called Armenian Genocide

What is the importance for the Armenians of the 'Armenian Genocide' allegations? What are the characteristics of the concept of genocide? Is U.S. President Biden’s decision to recognize the 'Armenian Genocide' lawful? Should Turkey continue to take the issue seriously? What is Turkey doing and what more should it do about the issue?

5 Questions: COVID-19 Pandemic and Racist Accusations against the Turkish Community in Belgium

What is the overall COVID-19 breakdown in Belgium? How has the Turkish community become a scapegoat in the COVID-19 pandemic? What were the reactions against making the Turkish community a scapegoat? How did right-wing populism try to take advantage of the situation? What has been the attitude of the Turkish community in Belgium during the COVID-19 crisis?

5 Questions: 2019 Escalation of the Kashmir Conflict

Why did tensions rise in Kashmir in February 2019? What happened on August 5 in Kashmir? What do Articles 35A and 370 mean to Kashmiris? What happened after the abrogation of Articles 35A and 370? Did the abrogation of Articles 35A and 370 lead to further integration or disintegration of Kashmir and India?

Experts Respond
Experts Respond: Unraveling the Daesh Assault on Santa Maria Church

On Jan. 28, an armed attack occurred at the Santa Maria Church in Istanbul’s Sarıyer district, resulting in the loss of one life. The Counterterrorism and Intelligence Branch of the Istanbul Police Department arrested two foreign suspected members of the Daesh terrorist organization. Some 34 individuals, also detained in connection with the attack, were brought before a magistrate for potential arrest. The Interior Ministry reported 1,046 operations against Daesh from June 1, 2023, to present. Why did Daesh – dormant since 2017 – once again target Türkiye? Is the assault on Santa Maria Church an isolated incident, or does it signify the manifestation of the organization's broader regional plans? How can we decipher the attack given the timing, method, target, and profile of the assailants? What is the status of counterterrorism operations against Daesh? Prominent experts have provided their assessments for our readers.

Experts Respond: How will the deadly earthquakes impact Türkiye’s foreign relations?

Southern Türkiye was jolted by twin earthquakes on February 6 that caused unprecedented devastation across an extremely vast area, impacting 11 provinces. Almost on par with the scale of the devastation, Türkiye has also received a huge amount of humanitarian aid from many countries with which Türkiye both has cordial and strained relations. In light of the considerable level of solidarity showcased by many countries, it is still unclear whether this atmosphere of solidarity and amicability will translate into tangible outcomes in the respective bilateral relations between Türkiye and these nations. Likewise, it is also unclear whether the solidarity displayed by countries with which Türkiye had tense relations until the earthquakes will cause a thaw in bilateral ties and lead to a new chapter in relations. We asked foreign policy experts to weigh in on these questions.

Experts Respond: European Political Community | Opportunities and Limitations

What is the purpose of the European Political Community? Is it a realistic proposal? If the Community is formed, how will the EU’s relations with other countries included in the Community be affected? Several experts presented their opinions about these questions for SETA.

Experts Respond: The Upheaval in Iran | The Protests, Which Erupted Following Mahsa Amini’s Death in Detention, in Their Third Week

We asked the leading Iran experts in Turkey and around the world to analyze the reasons behind the protests in Iran, the demands of the protestors, the Iranian administration’s attitude, the likely future of the protests and their impact on Iran. We present the assessments of those experts below.

Experts Respond: Political Tensions in Iraq | Analyzing the Storming of the Parliament and Its Impact

We reached out to several experts for more on how to understand the developments in Iraq and what possible future scenarios may be derived from the current situation.

Experts Respond: Political Crisis in Pakistan | The Reasons behind the Turmoil and Its Implications

The political situation in Pakistan is still not stable, and a new government is expected to be formed soon. However, at this point, it is important to understand the reasons that led to this turmoil and what the removal of Khan from office means for Pakistan. Within this framework, several experts from Turkey and Pakistan have briefly analyzed the events and their implications, not only for Pakistan but for the region and the world as well.

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