The 15th BRICS Summit Hosted by South Africa: Themes, Challenges, and Expert Perspectives
The 15th BRICS Summit took place between August 22-24, 2023, with South Africa serving as the host nation. The summit was held under the theme “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutual Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development, and Inclusive Multilateralism.” Key priorities included developing partnerships for a just and equitable transition, transforming education and skills development for the future, unlocking opportunities via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), strengthening post-COVID-19 socioeconomic recovery and achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, implementing genuine reform in global governance institutions, and enhancing the meaningful participation of women in peace processes.
Within this framework, experts addressed issues such as BRICS’s influence on the new multipolar global order amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, BRICS and United Nations reform, increasing BRICS’s influence in Africa through South Africa, deepening cooperation and innovative approaches among China and other BRICS members, and BRICS’s stance on de-dollarization.
Kemal İnat, Sakarya University: Can BRICS Shape a New Multipolar Order?
Examining the economic capacities of BRICS countries collectively, it is evident that, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity, they have surpassed Western countries and have made serious attempts to challenge Western dominance in international financial institutions. In this regard, members like China, India, and Russia wield significant political power on the global stage, indicating that BRICS has already contributed to the emergence of a multipolar world order. Brazil, too, holds potential as a regional leader in Latin America.
Notably, three members are nuclear powers, and China’s military expenditures are gradually approaching those of the United States, signaling an end to Western-led international system supremacy. While there are serious challenges to Western dominance, doubts remain about whether BRICS will play an effective role in shaping the emerging international political system.
This skepticism stems first from the loose ties within BRICS compared to more structured organizations like the EU or NATO, alongside serious conflicts between key members such as China and India, including occasional armed skirmishes. India’s security alignment—whether closer to the US or pursuing an independent path—is uncertain, but no one expects it to side with China. These internal issues weaken BRICS’s challenge to the global order.
Secondly, foreign policy mistakes by members like Russia damage BRICS’s credibility. Putin’s administration resembles the Soviet Union’s strategic errors—engaging in an arms race despite economic inferiority to the US and its allies, leading to costly military adventures starting with the 2008 partial occupation of Georgia and extending to Syria, Libya, and Ukraine. Russia currently faces a deadlock in Ukraine akin to the Soviet quagmire in Afghanistan. Western economic and military support for Ukraine has exposed Moscow’s military limitations. Amid increasing losses and internal instability, exemplified by the Wagner mutiny, Russia’s prospects of decisively winning the war are diminishing. From a Western perspective, Russia’s weakening—despite vast natural gas reserves and oil exports—represents a significant strategic victory in neutralizing a challenger.
Yücel Acer, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University: BRICS and UN Reform
BRICS was established on June 16, 2009, during a summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia, attended by Brazil, Russia, India, and China. After South Africa joined as a full member, the acronym changed from BRIC to BRICS. The grouping’s fundamental principles include respect for sovereignty, unity, independence, territorial integrity, non-aggression, and equality.
In the global security context, BRICS supports the central role of the UN in maintaining and enhancing global peace and security and insists that peacekeeping and peace enforcement activities adhere to the UN Charter and universally recognized international law norms. Dissatisfied with the current state—particularly regarding the Security Council (UNSC)—BRICS advocates comprehensive reforms. However, Russia and China do not support relinquishing or expanding their permanent UNSC seats or veto rights. Instead, they favor increased roles for India, Brazil, and South Africa within the UN.
Groups such as the G4 (Germany, India, Japan, Brazil) and L69 (approximately 40 countries from Asia, Africa, and Latin America) call for expanding the UNSC’s permanent membership, arguing that the global power balance has drastically changed since the UN’s post-WWII founding.
Nevertheless, this stance does not signify a radical reform attempt by BRICS. Increasing permanent seats does not resolve veto-related deadlocks and will not guarantee equitable representation or eliminate great power dominance—outcomes also championed by Türkiye. Indeed, reluctance to lose privileges and the uncertain outcomes of reform mean BRICS members lack consensus on fundamental changes.
BRICS countries represent nearly half the world’s population, substantial economic strength, ancient civilizations, and rich cultures, positioning them as a crucial counterbalance to Western dominance. However, asserting that BRICS intends to radically transform the UN or the global system is premature.
Tunç Demirtaş, SETA Researcher: Will BRICS Expand into Africa Through South Africa?
Africa is a major focus of this year’s BRICS summit. Strengthening ties between BRICS and African countries would significantly advance economic growth, sustainable development, and inclusive cooperation on the continent. The summit also targets expanding collaboration within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to promote economic growth and shared prosperity.
Expectations include meetings with leaders from 67 countries across Africa and other regions during the summit’s final day to increase BRICS’s global reach. Amid rising geopolitical divides between the “Global South” coalition and the US-led West, about 40 countries—including traditional Western allies like Ethiopia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—are reportedly interested in joining BRICS. Ethiopia has formally applied, and Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and Senegal await South Africa’s endorsement.
South Africa’s backing appears pivotal to BRICS’s expansion in Africa. Currently, BRICS countries represent 41% of the global population, 18% of world trade, and a share of global GDP exceeding that of the G7. Egypt, South Africa, and Nigeria together account for 49% of Africa’s economy. Should populous African nations like Egypt, Nigeria, and Ethiopia join BRICS, the alliance’s influence on the continent will grow significantly.
China and Russia, as the group’s global powers, are actively increasing their African influence. New African members beyond South Africa may intensify continental power struggles. Expansion promises new resources and opportunities but may also spur intra-alliance conflicts and external tensions.
Diren Doğan, Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University: Is Deepening Cooperation and Innovation Between China and Other BRICS Members Possible?
International attention is shifting from organizations representing a small fraction of the global population to those like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), representing 40% of the world’s population and 30% of global GDP, and BRICS, representing 42% of the population and 23% of global GDP.
China is a leading actor within these groups due to its presence and economic and trade capacity. Narrowing focus to BRICS, China is both an advantage and a challenge. Its rising power and multipolarity discourse bolster BRICS, exemplified by President Xi Jinping’s 2022 BRICS Business Forum speech emphasizing humanity as a whole and a global approach to risk—reflecting China’s usual foreign policy themes of “peaceful coexistence” and a “global village.”
China’s progress in infrastructure, green transition, and technological innovation impresses other BRICS members. However, with China being the primary trade partner for over 120 countries and discussions about a “common currency” still nascent, the Chinese yuan’s rising prominence may dominate other members’ currencies. This dominance increases dependency on China and casts doubt on the success of a shared currency initiative.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions within BRICS—such as differing stances between China and Russia, and more moderate positions from South Africa and Brazil—create divisions. India’s strained relations with China, enhanced defense cooperation with the US, and border disputes further complicate internal consensus.
Regarding new member admissions, China advocates expanding to strengthen diplomacy and the “new world order” narrative, while most other BRICS countries prefer a more selective approach, favoring exclusivity.
Ultimately, China’s rise and the “new world order” discourse are central to BRICS’s current prominence.
Deniz İstikbal, SETA Researcher: BRICS’s Approach to De-dollarization in the Economic-Political Context
BRICS accounts for approximately 30% of the global economy. Except China, other members’ integration into global trade remains limited. According to the International Trade Administration, China conducts over 17% of global trade, while other members account for just over 5% (World Bank data).
BRICS members predominantly use the US dollar and euro in their trade payments. Although Russia and China have reduced dollar and euro usage since the Russia-Ukraine war, payments still flow through Western financial systems and use foreign currencies.
More than 80% of global trade is dollar-denominated, with local currency trade lagging behind expectations. While BRICS established entities like the New Development Bank and Contingent Reserve Arrangement, it lacks significant global trade influence. The dominance of the dollar and euro in reserve currencies persists.
In early 2023, nearly 60% of global reserves were held in US dollars, followed by euros at 20%. IMF data indicates global reserves of $12.04 trillion, with $6.58 trillion in US dollars, $2.20 trillion euros, $609 billion Japanese yen, $541 billion British pounds, and $288 billion Chinese yuan.
BRICS promotes trade in local currencies: Russia sells energy in rubles, China extends yuan-denominated loans and engages in central bank swap agreements. India, South Africa, and Brazil participate in similar efforts. However, the dollar’s dominance in reserves and trade remains unchallenged.
In the future, BRICS members’ economic growth may facilitate greater local currency trade, especially in yuan.
