Türkiye’s local vote: Turning point for AK Party, milestone for CHP

Sunday’s municipal elections in Türkiye highlighted the country’s democratic maturity. Determining the outcome of political competition at the ballot box was yet another manifestation of democratic consolidation in the country. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) ranked first in the election, where 78.55 of voters participated, receiving 37.76% and winning 14 metropolitan municipalities and 21 provinces.

It was immediately striking that the CHP did not win over additional voters. Instead, the turnout rate was notably lower, and the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) appears to have lost some of its supporters. Consequently, the number of CHP voters increased by 3.3 million, while the AK Party witnessed a decline of 4.2 million.

Obviously, the opposition’s “grassroots alliance” strategy paid off in metropolitan areas as the majority of the Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples’ Democratic Party (DEM Party), and Good Party (IP) supporters voted for CHP-affiliated candidates. In addition to consolidating its base, the CHP received strong support from similar-minded parties.

Based on the election results, it is possible to argue that social programs, candidates and the backlash against economic challenges played a bigger role than investments and projects on Sunday. In other words, the CHP maintained the opposition alliance between 2019 and 2023, albeit with a different method. In this sense, the interest and propaganda networks around CHP candidates Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş successfully connected with the respective bases of similar-minded political parties.

Outcomes point to a new reality

Again, the CHP’s success in some conservative towns in the Anatolian heartland – not just metropolitan areas – points to a new reality. Indeed, CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel described the outcome as “cracking open the gate to a new political climate” and “a milestone for all political parties.” It remains to be seen whether the CHP’s new leadership, which promised change, will turn that phenomenon into a proper trend.

The AK Party, which won the May 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections, dropped to 35.48% on Sunday, winning 12 metropolitan areas and 12 provinces yet finishing second for the first time ever.

In the most recent election, where nearly 15 million people either did not show up or cast invalid votes, the movement faced an unexpected reaction from the electorate. The true meaning of that backlash, which observers have described as a lesson or punishment, will become clear with detailed studies. That some voters were unhappy with economic challenges dating back to the coronavirus pandemic (including high inflation and the concerns of pensioners) immediately comes to mind.

One could even argue that the AK Party had to pay the tabs for May 2023 and March 2024 simultaneously. Several other factors, such as the selection of candidates (as in internal rivalries and candidates who joined other parties), the New Welfare Party’s (YRP) performance (6.19%) and the lack of a clear discourse on the campaign trail. Remember that the electorate had delayed the governing party’s punishment for some time.

‘Not an end’

Reflecting on the election results on Sunday evening, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described March 31 as “a turning point, not an end.” Showing due respect to the Turkish people, he talked about the virtues of democracy with an inclusive tone. Erdoğan also acknowledged the AK Party’s need to learn from what happened and to update itself, pledging to engage in “courageous self-criticism.” He added that his administration would continue to serve without slowing down, ruling out early elections and improving the morale of his base and the AK Party organization.

The municipal election, which the AK Party called a turning point and the CHP described as a milestone, suggests that Turkish politics will be particularly active until 2028. The AK Party could win back its disgruntled voters if it successfully updates itself and improves income distribution to help low-income earners. The CHP, in turn, has to carry a heavier political burden now to cement its gains.

[Daily Sabah, April 3, 2024]