Recalibrating Türkiye-Gulf relations

As a reaction to certain regional and global developments, a large-scale normalization process was initiated in the Middle East at the beginning of 2020. As part of this normalization, Türkiye and the Gulf states normalized their relations three years ago to increase their autonomy and effectiveness in international politics.

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Recalibrating Türkiye-Gulf relations
Türkiye is rising actor in the Gulf

Türkiye is rising actor in the Gulf

Deepening Türkiye’s ties with those three Gulf states in trade, defense, technology, communication and security amounts to more than just reciprocal investments. After all, Türkiye has been gaining influence over the balance of power in that region. The country now seeks to form strategic alliances with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi – as it did with Doha several years ago. It is also possible for other Gulf states to become part of that trend.

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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Monday as part of his tour of the Gulf states. Over the course of four days, he will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) with a focus on investments and commercial relations. However, it is possible to argue that Erdoğan’s trip goes beyond strictly economic relations and marks the beginning of a new chapter in Türkiye’s relations with the Gulf.

Following the Arab Spring, all the nations in the Middle East started to pursue a phase of regional softness after a protracted era of strife and rivalry. In many areas of the Middle East, the normalization agenda is being implemented in a coordinated manner based on specific concerns.

The visit had global-level dynamics. On one hand, both countries want to decrease their respective dependencies on global powers and need to cooperate with one another. On the other hand, they want to increase their global autonomy. They have begun to instrumentalize a global power against the other.

Türkiye’s influence has been growing, globally and regionally, as a balancing power. In this sense, Ankara must refrain from becoming a party to regional polarization while remaining active in the region.

In the aftermath of MBS and Lapid's visit to Ankara

Ankara hopes to be a balancing factor in the region that generates security and stability.

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In the aftermath of MBS and Lapid's visit to Ankara
Synchronization question in Turkey's normalization policy

Synchronization question in Turkey's normalization policy

Ankara seeks to properly synchronize the simultaneous normalization processes with its partners for a strategic balance of power in the region

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'One could expect normalization between Ankara and Riyadh to occur as quickly as the process between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates'

It may not be easy for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to open a fresh chapter quickly, but both have already taken good steps toward it

The Turkish government's new diplomatic initiative with its regional and global partners is based on logic, while the opposition still has no idea why it rejects the process

Now or later, Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s resuming realist and pragmatic politics could bring about broader regional implications.

Normalization is not an emotional decision to “get along with everyone.” Nor does it occur at one side’s request. It goes without saying that all states revisit their policy choices with an eye on emerging geopolitical trends. They make calculations and make new choices if necessary. That, too, is the driving force behind the pursuit of normalization by regional powers, including Turkey.

Afghanistan turned out to be an area of cooperation between Ankara and Washington, as U.S. policymakers began to describe Turkey as 'an invaluable partner in the region' – instead of 'our so-called ally.'

The Saudi-UAE alliance's risky ventures, which designate Iran as an archrival and Turkey as an adversary, makes them vulnerable to demands from the U.S.-Israel axis and undermine their international credibility

The Khashoggi case has led to a government reshuffle in the Saudi kingdom, which has resulted in a consolidation of power for MBS, the crown prince who came under fire for his link with the murder

The brutal actions of the Saudi kingdom have put President Trump in a difficult position with Congress, strengthening the Democrats' hand against him

The global political economic system was established with the Bretton Woods institutions, namely the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, in 1944, just before the establishment of the United Nations.

No one was shocked by U.S. President Donald Trump's expression of solidarity with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) last week.

The murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi has become a milestone in Saudi politics. Many American media outlets reported that the CIA concluded in a report that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the de facto ruler of the country, personally ordered the killing of Khashoggi.

President Trump continues to express skepticism about MBS's direct involvement in the Khashoggi murder, while criticizing the inconsistent and contradictory statements from Saudi officials about the killing