Are local elections a remedy for Turkish opposition's concerns?

Negotiations are already underway among opposition parties regarding next year’s municipal election. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Good Party (IP) are experiencing the tension of party congresses and, having failed to take stock of their latest defeat, their leaders continue to get calls to step down. Accordingly, there is a deepening polarization between supporters and opponents of those party leaders.

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Are local elections a remedy for Turkish opposition's concerns
Turkish presidential elections and Western misperception

Turkish presidential elections and Western misperception

President Erdoğan has received 52.18% of the vote, while his rival Kılıçdaroğlu received 47.82%. Thus, President Erdoğan has won over 10 elections – including presidential elections, parliamentarian elections, local elections and referendums – that he entered since 2002. This is a record-high number in the history of modern Türkiye, which made Erdoğan the longest-serving statesman in the history of the Turkish Republic.

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Erdoğan has a respectable track record. In addition to the 1994 mayoral race in Istanbul, he has won 16 popular contests (including several constitutional referendums) since 2002. In May 2023, after 21 years in power, the Turkish leader achieved a parliamentary majority with the People’s Alliance and received the Turkish people’s permission to serve five more years as president.

Before the first-round election on May 14, many people supposed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s long-standing winning streak would be broken. This belief was fueled by high inflation and the devastating earthquakes that had occurred just three months before the elections. Nonetheless, the outcomes of the first-round election contradicted the predictions of almost all polls, leading to historic results that surprised many.

Tens of millions of Turks went to the polls and cast their votes last Sunday to choose the next president and the 600-seat Parliament. Over 30 political parties and five multiparty political coalitions (the People’s Alliance, the Nation Alliance, the ATA Alliance, the Labor and Freedom Alliance, and the Union of Socialist Forces Alliance) competed in the elections. At first, there were four official candidates, namely, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Sinan Oğan and Muharrem Ince. However, after the withdrawal of Ince, only three of them competed for the Presidency.

With Türkiye entering the final week of the 2023 election campaign, rhetorical battles have notably escalated. It would be wrong to reduce that development to peak polarization because what observers have called this year’s most important election remains critically important for the country’s future.

Türkiye’s political atmosphere as May 14 elections loom

Although the checks and balances mechanisms in modern liberal democracies have increasingly diversified, the most effective means for accountability and controlling leaders is still the ballot box. Of course, free, fair and competitive elections are not the only condition for a regime’s pluralistic and libertarian rule, but it is a prerequisite.

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Türkiye s political atmosphere as May 14 elections loom
Solving or just discussing Turkey's 'Kurdish question'

Solving or just discussing? Turkey's 'Kurdish question'

CHP and the IP may face two problems at once. Failure to talk about autonomy or native-language education would get them stuck between Erdoğan’s Diyarbakır address and the HDP’s demands. Discussing the problems with the reconciliation process would put the CHP and the IP, not the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), in a difficult position.

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A lack of democracy, shady hustles and disunity. The main opposition CHP actively embraces what a successful party would avoid

The Istanbul rerun election fueled new developments in Turkish politics. There is an ongoing discussion on a range of issues including the presidential system and the prospect of new political parties. The newfound "self-confidence" of Kurdish nationalists deserves particular attention in this context. The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) takes credit for the Republican People's Party's (CHP) success in the March 31 and June 23 elections. As a matter of fact, it dates its influence back to the June 2018 elections.

The mayoral race in Istanbul ended in democratic maturity as Republican People's Party (CHP) candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu finished at the top.

The Western media's interest in Turkey has steadily increased, and this has two dimensions. First, they are establishing new media outlets in Turkey and becoming entrenched in the domestic market. Lately, the launch of a joint Turkish-language YouTube channel called +90 by the public international broadcasters of Germany, France, Britain and the U.S. has drawn attention. Another interesting development was the launch of a Turkish news website by the British online newspaper, The Independent.

Istanbul's June 23 local election is about two weeks away. On the occasion of the Ramadan Bayram, or Eid al-Fitr, election campaigns have moved out of Istanbul, with the mayoral candidates preferring to address fellow citizens in various Anatolian provinces.

On March 31, Turkey held local elections in a transparent manner that reflect its democratic maturity. The results showed that voters gave different messages to both the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).

The key to success for the candidates in the neck-and-neck race in Istanbul is to keep their supporters motivated and excited, while keeping their campaigns positive

Leadership requires managing multiple interacting layers at the same time. It also entails meeting conflicting needs and demands simultaneously without allowing them to collide with each other. Precise, effective timing and ordering is a sine qua non. It is crucial to keep the balance of what needs to be done. In reviewing, you should not lose control or reproduce disputes. This can be achieved not by succumbing to the clichés, but breaking them.

Although the recount of some ballots in Istanbul is ongoing, analysts have started to discuss the outcome of the local elections that took place in Turkey on Sunday. It will be hard to summarize the potential outcomes of the elections and their meaning but here are some critical points.

The government sees the post-election years as an opportunity to follow a more proactive foreign policy and implement structural reforms in the economy

Turkey's local election campaigning took on the tone and tenor of general elections this year, and survival was the predominant theme in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's campaign discourse.

The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) received the 43.16 percent of the vote in the local elections of 2014, the highest of all participating parties. For the local elections of March 31, it received 45 percent, increasing 2 percent, and came out as the clear victor again. However, the country's major cities, such as Istanbul and Ankara, voted differently in the majority, which shows the power of the legitimate election rallies in Turkey.

People went to the polls on Sunday to elect the local administrators for the cities and municipalities around Turkey. For the last two months, political parties campaigned extensively throughout Turkey. The high voter turnout rate again proved the Turkish people's commitment to democracy and their participation in this democratic process. While these sentences were written, the vote count was still going on.