The Biden administration is careful not to create expectations regarding the prisoner exchange agreement with Iran, aiming to emphasize that such "humanitarian" efforts are separate from the nuclear issue. Immediately after the successful exchange, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran, indicating that the situation is not merely a simple prisoner swap. The fact that the exchange also involves the release of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue frozen in South Korea for humanitarian purchases shows that it is more than just a prisoner exchange. The U.S. government, perhaps to avoid any political cost domestically, is both imposing new sanctions and claiming that it has no connection to the stalled nuclear negotiation process.
We asked the leading Iran experts in Turkey and around the world to analyze the reasons behind the protests in Iran, the demands of the protestors, the Iranian administration’s attitude, the likely future of the protests and their impact on Iran. We present the assessments of those experts below.
What kind of Türkiye does Iran prefer? Which Türkiye can satisfy Iranian regional expectations?
Under the current circumstances, it seems impossible for the U.S. to discover a new kind of engagement that would contain Russia and China in the Middle East as well as address Iran’s problems with Israel and the Gulf. It is highly likely that the fresh diplomatic efforts by Washington, which cannot even appreciate Türkiye’s balancing and stabilizing/securing role, will prove to be a complete waste of time.
Unless the U.S. policy toward Iran changes, it seems difficult for the EU and its member states to open a new page in relations with Iran