Greece has been playing a dangerous game recently with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. There are several reasons why Greece is choosing to play this high-risk game and increase tensions with its neighbor.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias to visit Ankara on Thursday

Turkey maintains its decisive stance on the ground as normalization signals with Egypt worry the duo further

If they were more supportive, Washington and Brussels could help Ankara and Athens improve their bilateral initiatives

Strategic Flexibility under Geopolitical Anxiety

The analysis examines the recent maritime boundary delimitation agreement signed between Greece and Egypt, and discusses its implications for the Greek-Turkish dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Recent tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have multiple drivers including the race for exploitation of energy resources, long-standing maritime disputes, and the broader geopolitical competition between regional powers. While Turkey’s recent assertiveness of her rights in the Eastern Mediterranean drew renewed attention to the region, this round of confrontation has been long in the making.

For the last month, there have been increasing reports about the rising tension in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece. Although tension in the Aegean Sea is not uncommon due to several disputes in regards to maritime delimitation, this time there are broader issues. There is confusion among the international observers about the nature of this tension and it could be appropriate to note a few points on what led to it.

Turkey counters encirclement strategy by concluding maritime accord with Libya, unnerving inimical regional, global powers

'No one can question' deal, 'especially France' says Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay

Greece continues to escalate tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean amid calls from the European Union for dialogue. In addition to conducting military exercises, Athens deployed troops to the island of Kastellorizo (Megisti-Meis) and is preparing to conclude an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement with the Greek Cypriots – similar to Athens' controversial deal with Egypt. Last but not least, Greek leaders fueled tensions last week by talking about extending their claims in the Ionian Sea to 12 nautical miles.

On Friday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, along with former energy chief and current Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, announced that Turkey had discovered some 320 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas – the largest deposit found in the country's history.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean are escalating anew to dangerous levels. Turkey responded to a Greek-Egyptian maritime agreement, which undermined Germany’s mediation efforts, by dispatching the research vessel Oruç Reis, alongside frigates, to the Mediterranean Sea. The Greek military consequently went into high alert.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean seem incapable of de-escalating. Although the situation on the Sirte-Jufra line in Libya remains under control thanks to Turkey’s diplomatic talks with the U.S. and Russia, last week’s explosion in Lebanon and the Greco-Egyptian maritime deal fueled tensions anew. Athens and Cairo recently announced that they had concluded an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement, directly challenging Turkey’s November 2019 deal with Libya. As a matter of fact, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias did not hesitate to describe that agreement as “the opposite” of the Turkish-Libyan treaty.

What are the driving factors behind the conflict in Libya? What is Turkey’s strategic objective in Libya? What are the future scenarios for Libya?

SETA Security Radar attempts to anticipate the course of major security issues Turkey faces and how to develop and enhance sound and relevant responses within this increasingly challenging regional security environment.

The fall of Tripoli could undermine European energy security and unleash a new refugee wave on already overwhelmed countries