Hamas’ acceptance of ceasefire and Israel’s Rafah operation

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Despite Hamas announcing its acceptance of the ceasefire on Monday, Israel stated that the agreement …
  • In recent days, news suggesting progress in the discussions between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and approaching the stage of agreement, could herald a new era in the Middle East. Saudis are seeking support from the United States to develop 'peaceful' nuclear technology in response to Iran's nuclear capacity, as well as security assurances in the event of a potential war. The agreement, which includes cooperation in advanced technology and distancing from China, is critical for the Biden administration, as its support depends on it. However, it will be challenging for a government led by Netanyahu, who has always opposed the establishment of a Palestinian state, to accept the insistence of the Saudis on stopping the Gaza war and a two-state solution. The Biden administration aims to use the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia to sideline the Gaza issue and appear to have 'resolved' the Palestinian issue by the November elections, but Netanyahu remains the biggest obstacle to this.
  • The Biden administration seems to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran's direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to Israel through various channels that any attack on Iran should be 'proportional,' also signaling to the Netanyahu government that US support for Israel would be limited to defense. With the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, Iran's UAVs and missiles were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace, making the job of the Iron Dome relatively easier. However, Iran's low-intensity and controlled attack with low-cost weapons demonstrated that in a more 'real' war, Israel's task would be far from easy. The attack, which brought the urgency of Israel's defense to the forefront, seems to pave the way for a vote on a long-delayed aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. The fact that American foreign aid could reach the approval stage thanks to the attack on Israel indicates how much the issues that bring Republicans and Democrats together have decreased.
  • The direct confrontation between Iran and Israel remains under control – for now. Yet, it points to an emerging equilibrium in the region. There was already talk of escalating tensions in the Middle East around Gaza and Palestine in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack.

Bu Konuda Daha Fazla

  • In response to Israel's striking of Iran's consulate in Syria, Ayatollah Khamenei's statement of "retaliation will be given" has heightened the possibility of the regional proxy war escalating into direct conflict. Since October 7th, Netanyahu has been attempting to expand the conflict by targeting Hamas and Shia militia objectives in both Beirut and Syria. The relatively controlled continuation of the "regional war" relied on Iran and Hezbollah refraining from militarily supporting Hamas. However, Khamenei's remarks suggesting that striking the Iranian consulate would mean targeting Iranian soil have also put Washington on high alert.

  • Although Israel’s genocidal attacks and the suffering of the people of Gaza continue to occupy the main agenda of world politics, there have been important developments in Palestine recently. There are many efforts to divert the attention of people and governments from Israel's brutality. However, none of these attempts have succeeded in taking Gaza off the agenda. Even the brutal terrorist attack in Moscow did not distract the international community.

  • The 'immediate ceasefire resolution' issued by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) due to the United States' abstention indicates that the Biden administration's political pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu persists. Despite the White House emphasizing that the decision is not binding and that there are no changes in policy, Netanyahu canceled the visit of the delegation he planned to send to Washington immediately after the UNGA decision. The fact that the Biden administration, which has been diplomatically protecting Israel with its veto power since October 7th, chose to abstain this time suggests that the crisis in bilateral relations has reached its peak. While Netanyahu may lean towards Trump, who has advocated for ending the conflict, Trump's remarks have increased American pressure.

  • The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has passed a resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza for the month of Ramadan. The 14 members council members voted in favor of the resolution, which was proposed by the 10 elected members of the council. Only the United States abstained from the vote. After the vote, there was an unusual round of applause in the council chamber, showing how much the international community wants the bloodshed to end.

  • In 2015, Netanyahu came to Washington to dynamite Obama's deal with Iran and made a speech in Congress. Obama was trying to delay Congress's new sanctions to make a nuclear deal with Iran. Netanyahu accepted the invitation of Republicans in the House of Representatives and did not coordinate his visit with Obama's White House. Netanyahu's speech at the session, attended by both wings of Congress, was repeatedly applauded. Netanyahu, who tried to end Obama's nuclear talks with Iran by imposing sanctions on Iran by Republicans and some Democrats in Congress, failed. Vice President Biden, who sat behind Netanyahu during his speech to Congress, seems to be facing a similar Netanyahu problem these days.