NATO’s critical Madrid summit and Türkiye

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All eyes are on the Spanish capital, Madrid, which is hosting a three-day NATO summit. …
  • In this collection of essays, we discuss how NATO can overcome strategic challenges and recalibrate the strength of the alliance under the new geopolitical circumstances. The essays in this report focus on NATO’s transformations after the Ukraine war and attempt to understand Türkiye’s foreign policy alternatives within the context of its relations with the West, Russia, and NATO.
  • This paper consists of two main parts. In the first part, it explains the main priorities that NATO is focusing on by elaborating on the Russian attack on Ukraine, the China challenge, and the changing character of military and non-military threats. In the second part, the paper delivers a framework to make sense of why Türkiye particularly attaches unique significance to some issues. It concludes that Türkiye will continue to support NATO endeavors but the country expects its allies to cooperate on counterterrorism efforts and also expects calibrated and meaningful engagement in Greek-Turkish disagreements.
  • This analysis examines the reasons behind Greece’s policy of escalating tension and whether that policy has any legal ground.

Bu Konuda Daha Fazla

  • Greek military and diplomatic initiatives carry the risk of creating further tension in the Aegean, if Greece pushes Turkey to bigger security dilemmas.

  • Greece has been arming itself aggressively in recent years, attempting to add F-35 fighter jets to its inventory of Rafale fighters, Belharra frigates and corvettes. In 2021, Athens spent 2.5 billion euros ($2.8 billion) on military equipment, quintupling its spending compared to the previous year. By next year, the Greeks will increase their military budget sevenfold anew.

  • Merkel’s last 16 years in office will be recorded in history as one of the most active periods in Turkish-German relations. Erdoğan and Merkel’s efforts to act as two rational actors on the axis of mutual interests became the main driving forces of this 16-year dynamism.

  • Due to the current uncertain trajectory of Greek military modernization, this paper discusses the strategic logic that guides its armament and diplomatic activism rather than a measurement of the emerging balance of power. In line with its compellence strategy, Greece wants to command the Aegean Sea and to deny the Eastern Mediterranean Sea to Turkey.

  • New opportunities will emerge for Turkey and Greece if they can diplomatically resolve their problems. However, both sides, especially the Greek and the Greek Cypriots, were conditioned to be confrontational in their discourse with Turkey.