“A momentous day.” This is how Russian President Dmitry Medvedev described the decision by the Russian parliament to recognize the independence claims of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Speaking to the BBC, Medvedev added that Russia does not want a cold war with the West because “there are no winners” in such a war. While the Russian president may not like the talk of a cold war, Russia is gearing up for a major confrontation with the West.
Aggression is the word used by many European and American officials, including British Foreign Minister David Miliband, to describe the current Russian policy in the Caucasus. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is speaking to the world media every day in an attempt to get world public opinion on his side. With typical hyperbole, Saakashvili describes the Russian invasion of his country as “genocide,” a very heavy word and a problematic one in the region. (Armenians would like to keep their monopoly on that word against Turkey.) Georgia’s cry for global attention is justified. But Russians could care less about their public image. It will take much more than a media campaign to stop the war in the region.
Russia’s overconfident posturing in the current crisis is discomforting for others, including the former Soviet republics in the Baltic region. There is a substantial Russian population in each of the Baltic states, and Russia may very well claim that it has a right to protect its citizens. This is what Medvedev said in his recent BBC interview. While an immediate incursion by Moscow into these states looks unlikely at the moment, one cannot rule out the possibility.
This is all part of a new geo-strategic showdown between Russia and the Western bloc. Europeans and Americans are trying to create safety zones to contain a rehabilitated Russia. Yet the West has become too dependent on Moscow for vital energy supplies as well as key Middle East issues, including the Iranian nuclear program. Russia sees the Western advancement in its backyard as directed at Russia’s political sovereignty. The US plan to install a major missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic is another factor that gives Russia enough justification to flex its muscles against the Western bloc. Russian officials call the missile system a threat to their national security. What is most dangerous at this point is the very high possibility of actual combat starting in the two breakaway republics of Georgia. If and when Abkhazians and South Ossetians start a war of independence backed and armed by Moscow, it will be impossible to reverse the clock. Once fighting starts, it will pose serious threats to all parties involved, including Turkey.
Turkey is the only NATO country bordering Georgia. Any possible membership extended to Georgia, which is so passionately yet unrealistically demanded by Saakashvili, will put Turkey right in the middle of a possible military confrontation with Russia. In case of a war, controlling the straits under Turkey’s jurisdiction will be key. As the recent case of US ships crossing the Turkish straits under the Montreux Convention showed, Turkey will be hard-pressed to maintain a position of balance between NATO and Moscow.
The only possible way out of this political crisis is to freeze the process immediately. This is an absolute necessity before Moscow arms every Abkhazian and Ossetian and the two republics become an open field for international fighting. The Western bloc must have a serious talk with Russia about its intentions regarding the expansion of NATO. The US must stop its aggressive policy of installing new defense missile systems in Eastern Europe. Georgian President Saakashvili must refrain from speaking like a NATO member already and remember where his country is. In return, Moscow must accept the status-quo, i.e., the territorial integrity of Georgia. The Russians should realize that any territorial change in the map of the Caucasus may result in an upset of the whole region.
Today’s Zaman – 28.08.2008 <a rel="nofol