Türkiye elections: Fate of second round lies within results

Türkiye successfully held a historic election in line with democratic maturity. Governments around the world watched closely as 88.92% of eligible voters participated in the election and Turkish democracy proved its strength yet again. In the end, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan beat his opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, by almost 5 percentage points. Meanwhile, the People’s Alliance claimed 322 parliamentary seats – the majority – with 49.5%.

Those results gave Erdoğan three advantages: Parliamentary majority, leading the first round, and leading by a clear margin. Judging by the turnout rate, the incumbent is expected to win the second round quite comfortably. He was relaxed and confident on Sunday night as he delivered his “balcony speech” at the Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) headquarters. At the same time, Erdoğan kicked off his campaign for the second round on a strong note.

By contrast, the opposition has collapsed in many ways. Before Sunday’s elections, pro-opposition echo chambers, pollsters and social media users raised expectations to such an extent that many opposition voters were left severely frustrated the following morning. It is possible to expect that part of the electorate to lash out at Kılıçdaroğlu and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) because they had been told that the opposition was destined to claim the parliamentary majority with Kılıçdaroğlu becoming president with 55%.

On election day, the opposition’s spokespeople not only frustrated their own supporters. The mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, falsely claimed that Kılıçdaroğlu was set to become the next president – a horrible start.

Ahead of the second round, the opposition will try to campaign like the country will hold a completely new election. That, however, would be futile because (unlike Erdoğan) they kicked off the campaign on a negative note. Several hours later, the main opposition leader could do nothing more than appear before cameras, accompanied by two mayors and five party chairs, for less than two minutes to make accusations against Erdoğan and claim he would win the second round.

On Monday, he posted a short video on Twitter – “I am here” – which seemed to be about the CHP’s upcoming leadership race instead of the presidential election’s second round.

It will be difficult for the opposition candidate to persuade his alliance’s supporters to participate in the second round. He will claim to have performed well on Sunday, stressing that he received 44% of the vote, yet the CHP received just 25% despite fielding a presidential candidate. Let us add that the main opposition incorporated four right-wing parties into its candidate lists.

4 fringe parties benefited

The four fringe parties proved to be good negotiators by claiming 34 or 35 parliamentary seats with the CHP’s assistance, yet the CHP base couldn’t see what those parties brought to the table.

Did former CHP voters, who had temporarily backed the Green Left Party (YSP), account for the 1.5% point increase? Or did the four right-wing parties make that contribution? In the end, was it worth giving those movements 6% or 7% of the main opposition’s parliamentarians?

Naturally, the Nation Alliance will postpone that debate until their candidate loses in the second round. The Good Party (IP) Chairperson Meral Akşener was apparently right about Kılıçdaroğlu not being an “electable” candidate. Will Imamoğlu take a shot at the CHP leadership with the help of Ankara’s mayor? I doubt that Kılıçdaroğlu would allow that. But all of those questions will be answered in two weeks.

Another important point is that nationalist voters made their mark on all political calculations. Primarily, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) caught some pollsters by surprise as it received 10% of the vote. The IP, too, was able to end the race with nearly 10%. Meanwhile, Sinan Oğan received more than 5% to show that nationalists will be the kingmakers in the second round.

At the same time, the Green Left Party’s claim that it would be the new Parliament’s key player was disproved as the People’s Alliance claimed the parliamentary majority, and the Green Left Party (read: HDP) dropped to 8% nationwide. Furthermore, it became clear that the YSP-backed presidential candidate would lose.

There is no doubt that Erdoğan and his AK Party emerged as victors on May 14. The movement was able to receive more than 35% after 21 years in power, as the People’s Alliance reached 50% and parliamentary majority. The incumbent will enter the second round quite comfortably. At the same time, the MHP’s 10%, the New Welfare’s 2.8% and the Great Union Party’s 1% indicate that Erdoğan’s partners were also winners.

The Turkish president’s most recent victory may only be compared to his previous triumphs. It is certainly unprecedented in the history of Türkiye and the world for a political leader to remain in power for 26 years through democratic means.

[Daily Sabah, May 17, 2023]