The Fraud Probe just the Tip of the Iceberg

“Don’t believe what your eyes are telling you. All they show is limitation. Look with your understanding. Find out what you already know and you will see the way to fly,” reads the Jonathan Livingston Seagull by Richard Bach.

As Turkey passes through a storm, the “so-called” fraud probe, one better look at the big picture. In fact, the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on the subject matter, “Everybody is aware that this is not a corruption issue but a conspiracy” on the eve of a Cabinet reshuffle after the corruption investigation was launched.

What would be the impact of the corruption stir, or similar three probes that were exposed one after the other like a Russian Matrushka? Is this an international plot? How may these investigations have an impact on the local elections in March, 2013?

Al Jazeera English looking for answers to these questions hosted SETA’s Political Researcher Galip Dalay in the Inside Story broadcast on December 27, 2013.

As part of the reshuffle, Erdoğan changed 10 Cabinet ministers. The Environment Minister Erdoğan Bayraktar was one of them. Bayraktar is considered to be the one who may have the potential to hurt Erdoğan the most as he asked the resignation of the Prime Minister among them.

Does Bayraktar have such a potential? Will the resignations of three ministers who are allegedly involved in the fraud trigger more departures from the ruling party? Dalay said: “Bayraktar back tracked on his words. He said that he has been friends with Erdoğan for 40 years. Therefore, he would remain in service to this party. For the time being, we do not know yet if there will be more resignations, but I personally do not expect this to be a large number.”

Three different operations were carried out on the same day and announced on the same day. When the Inside Story presenter asked “Why?”, Dalay in his answer shed light on the “unseen” or “behind the scene” of these probes.

“For sure, there is the judicial aspect of these operations, it [the investigation] should go as far as it can go, should not discriminate against anyone in any position no matter at what position the person is. If one is found guilty of corruption, he should totally bear the consequences,” Dalay emphasized. “However,” as for the political aspect, he said, “When we talk about the bundling of three probe cases into one file, we come to the political aspect. Here, it is like a part of the Gülenist Movement. Here, it is like an operation against the government. This is not like what we should see in a context that came after the schools debate and that came after the trap of leaking the sex tapes…”

A POLITICALLY MOTIVATED CORRUPTION CASE

As Dalay was asked whether or not he agrees with Erdoğan who has said that the government is the target of an international plot, the SETA researcher clarified: “It does not have to be an international plot. This is not just my judgment. It is the main perception among columnists in Turkey. It is not just among the government circles but among legal services, columnists like Ruşen Çakır and previously arrested journalists like Ahmet Şık and Nedim Şener. None of these people sees this as a corruption case per se. They say it is like a politically motivated corruption case. There is a corruption aspect to this, but the reason is that three operations have been bundled together, and the fact is that, it has been leaked only months before the local elections because it is politically motivated.”

These cases will certainly have an impact on the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), according to Dalay. However, he forecasts “It will not be as bad as many predicted. The reason is that many people do not see this case as a clean-handed operation; meaning, people see this as a vendetta by one group against the governme