Shifting power dynamics in Syria: Assad regime and allies face major setbacks
The Middle Eastern developments continue to set the agenda of international politics. The Al-Aqsa Flood has become a turning point for the whole region. The ongoing genocide in Gaza against the Palestinian people and the Israeli aggression against the sovereignty of regional countries, directly and indirectly, influence all regional dynamics. Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian proxies in Syria have dramatically changed the Syrian context as well. As a result of the shifted regional balance of power, the opposition forces, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), initiated a military operation against Syria's Bashar Assad regime on Nov. 27.
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Cease-fire in Lebanon: Catalyst for regional shifts?
After approximately 14 months of conflict, a cease-fire between Israeli and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon came into effect at 4 a.m. local time on Nov. 27. Mediated by the United States and France, the cease-fire is fundamentally based on the revival of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. According to this agreement, Hezbollah forces will withdraw north of the Litani River, while Israeli forces will retreat south of the Blue Line. This process is expected to be completed within 60 days.
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Tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, raising fears of full-scale war amid ongoing regional conflicts
Israel, which has paralyzed the Hezbollah organization, took a further decisive step by killing Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, on Sept. 27. All observers agree that the killing of Nasrallah will dramatically influence the future of not only Hezbollah and Lebanon but also the Middle East. In this article, I will underline some of the implications of this killing.
Israel's cyber-attacks spark a regional war, threatening stability and drawing in global powers
Israel's latest covert operations, indiscriminately targeting both soldiers and civilians, have now been directed at Hezbollah. In a coordinated attack, Israel detonated devices placed in the pagers and radios of thousands of Hezbollah members, a move that could be studied in intelligence courses for its precision. Previously, Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran had exposed a major security flaw in Iran. This new operation, injuring thousands of Hezbollah members, now reveals significant security vulnerabilities within Hezbollah itself. If Hezbollah responds to this provocation, which marks Israel’s latest attempt to escalate tensions in the region, war seems inevitable. However, should the U.S. intervene behind the scenes to prevent Hezbollah from engaging Israel, it would signal that Iran is prioritizing a potential post-election deal with the U.S. over immediate conflict.
Can Washington sway the hawks in Israel and Iran?
These days, the Biden administration is trying to persuade Iran to limit its attacks on Israel. However, it's impossible to overlook the incentivizing role played by the administration's unlimited support for the Netanyahu government thus far.
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New escalation in regional conflict
The killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by pro-Iran militias via UAV strikes initiated a new escalation in the escalating regional conflict. Since October 7th, concerns about regional warfare seemed obsolete. We previously noted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's attempt to expand the Gaza conflict regionally and entangle the US in conflict with Iran. The Jordan attack partially succeeded in these efforts. Over the past week, the US conducted military operations in the region, signaling a response.
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Traditionally, Türkiye-Iran relations have been defined by a mix of competition and cooperation. Sharing a long land border and possessing a multidimensional historical depth, numerous dynamics simultaneously affect the relationship between the two countries.
We're talking about the possibility of Israel's attacks on Gaza triggering a regional war after October 7. Recent developments actually indicate that we are already in the midst of a regional war. However, the fluctuating intensity of such conflicts and the fact that the parties involved are not always clearly defined make it difficult to label it as a regional war. The evolution of warfare between countries, occurring in complex ways across different arenas and activating the capacities of various parties, has made traditional, all-encompassing wars increasingly rare. Many countries now prefer proxy wars due to their lower cost, lower risk, and deniability.
President Biden's message during his visit to a church in the state of South Carolina and the reactions of some protesters seemed like a summary of the dilemma he will face in preparing for the presidential elections. In 2015, a perpetrator advocating white supremacy killed 9 black citizens who came to the church for worship, a message that was discussed in the public eye as a result of Trump's message on the eve of the 2016 presidential elections. By starting his 2024 campaign with a visit to this church, Biden tried to show that black votes would be critical. By making a reference to Trump's expressions about immigrants 'poisoning' the country's blood, he conveyed the message that the real 'poison' is the idea of white supremacy. The messages given to the political electorate in South Carolina, a critical state that brought Biden to candidacy in 2016, stand out as an effort to reach out to black voters, which will play a critical role in the upcoming election.
The new year got off to an extremely busy start in Türkiye.
On Jan. 4, Tehran Times, an international newspaper of Iran, described Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the United States in Iraq, as the “architect” of the new regional geometry in the Middle East. On the same day, a terrorist attack occurred in Kerman, Iran, killing more than 100 civilians.
As uncertainty, competition and conflict gain momentum within the international system, Türkiye engages in diplomacy to play a more defining role in global and regional crises.
During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration's support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of 'strategic defeat,' is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Israel has been subjecting Gaza to a total blockade and heavy bombardment for more than a week. While the non-Western world speaks out against those measures, U.S. President Joe Biden offered his unconditional support to Tel Aviv – a development that threatens to cause the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to result in more devastation.
