Mapping Turkey’s Future

People who try to force another secularist regime down the throat of the Middle East need to take a step back and face the fact that it will take religious legitimacy, as opposed to secularism, to overcome sectarian clashes.

Things were never easy for Turkey. But today, the country faces several major transformations and challenges. Located in a dangerous neighborhood, Turkey not only tries to neutralize security threats related to the Syrian civil war but also seeks to redefine its relationship with Russia, the European Union and the United States. At the same time, the Turks seek a way out of the political turbulence by reforming their system of governance – a proposal to shift to the presidential system to finish off the bureaucratic guardianship regime.

Most recently, the July 15 coup attempt established that Turkey could not remain stable unless the system of governance is reformed and the nation’s international affairs are put in order.

Nowadays, many Turks question what the future holds for their country. Although I do not attach undue importance to European integration, I believe that Turkey’s EU membership bid will not go further than endless negotiations – particularly due to the developments in Europe. On the other hand, Eurasian integration is not the answer either – however close Turkey becomes to Russia. Finally, the Middle East, with whom we share our destiny, faces serious problems including refugees, sectarian clashes and terrorism.

Either way, Turkey’s only option is to improve its security while consolidating its democracy – no matter the circumstances outside our borders.

In recent weeks, I noted that the competition among global and regional powers rendered short-term regional stability unattainable and posited that the long-term goal should be to form Muslim democracies capable of representing popular interests.

Looking at the current situation, some observers voice concern about Turkey’s future. Citing a perceived authoritarian turn and the downfall of Islamists in Turkey and the Middle East after the Arab Spring’s failure, they maintain that the best option is to reinstate a secularist regime. In the wake of the failed coup, the same experts used Fetullah Gülen’s power grab as an excuse to make the case that any Islamic-tinted group would hurt Turkey’s national interests. Advocates of a return to secularist regimes have two options: Either to remove the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) from power or create a new wave of secularism through the AK Party.

Personally, I believe that Turkey’s national interests would be best served by a combination of Islamic and nationalist values and democracy. And I am not talking about some “moderate Islam” project, which produced the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) and their coup attempt.

After 14 years in power, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his AK Party remain capable of representing the majority of voters. At the same time, the conservative-Muslim elite remains more likely than the secularists to transform the nation’s politics and end bureaucratic oligarchy. Ironically for proponents of secularist regimes, it took Erdoğan, a leader with Islamic sensitivities, to stop FETÖ, an Islamic-tinted organization that has been reduced to a freelancer for foreign intelligence agencies.

People who try to force another secularist regime down the throat of the Middle East need to take a step back and face the fact that it will take religious legitimacy, as opposed to secularism, to overcome sectarian clashes.

[Daily Sabah, October 31, 2016]

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