Is Tel Aviv Losing Ankara?

There are two main reasons for the Turkish outcry. First of all, Turkey has been acting as a facilitator between Israel and Syria over the last year or so. According to Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, the two sides were very close to moving to the next stage of direct talks. This would have been one of the most important breakthroughs in the Middle East in a long time. After the war on Gaza started, the Syrian-Israeli talks were suspended

When and how the two sides will start the process again and whether Turkey will be willing to serve as a facilitator is not clear. Such engagements are built upon trust and confidence. Israel has proved itself to be unreliable in this particular diplomatic effort.

The second reason is that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was in Ankara just five days before the war on Gaza. According to Turkish officials, Olmert spoke of Syrian-Israeli talks and the situation in Gaza as if things were going to proceed normally and in consultation with Turkey and other countries involved in the process. Some Turkish newspapers also reported that the Israeli ambassador to Turkey said that Olmert promised the Turkish side that Israel would help improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

The sense of betrayal is clear in Erdoðan’s statements over the last 10 days. What is at stake is also Turkey’s credibility and its capacity to take risks with different actors in the region. The loss of confidence on the part of Ankara will have long-term consequences for Turkey’s engagements in the Middle East, but more so for Ankara’s relations with Tel Aviv.

If Israel wants to have peace with its neighbors, including Syria, Lebanon and perhaps one day, as farfetched as it might be, Iran, it needs Turkey more than Turkey needs it. Tel Aviv’s defiant and arrogant attitude has further tarnished its already damaged image around the world. Hopes for a sustainable solution to the Palestinian issue will have no place after the war on Gaza. The Arab regimes will be forced to accept and eventually concede to the terms set by Tel Aviv and Washington. But they will come under further pressure from their own publics.

This means one thing: Anti-American and anti-Israeli opposition groups in the Arab world will become stronger. Now everybody knows who represents this political position in the Arab states. Hamas is certain to get a blow to its military capacity, but is likely to grow stronger politically because of the war. Support for Hamas will expand in the Arab world, too. If Ehud Barak and Tzipi Livni are counting on an election victory on Feb. 10 with their iron-fisted war policy, they need to rethink their political strategy for the long term.

As Israel loses more face in the region, losing Turkey too will not make things easier for it. The Syrian-Israeli talks have now been put on the backburner. Israeli-Lebanese relations will not see any improvement in the short term. Even with the so-called “moderate Arab states” (meaning those that accept every term Israel puts on the table), Israel will have more difficult times.

As I type these lines, the human carnage is Gaza is reaching new heights. That ‘there is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza’ was a flat lie from the very beginning. As Israeli warplanes hit hospitals, schools, mosques, UN buildings and houses and kill more women and children, it will have more enemies than friends in the region and around the world. But more importantly, with the war on Gaza Israel has already lost whatever moral ground it had, and this will certainly be a part of perceptions of Israel in Turkey in the years to come.

Today’s Zaman – January 08, 2009