The killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by pro-Iran militias via UAV strikes initiated a new escalation in the escalating regional conflict. Since October 7th, concerns about regional warfare seemed obsolete. We previously noted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's attempt to expand the Gaza conflict regionally and entangle the US in conflict with Iran. The Jordan attack partially succeeded in these efforts. Over the past week, the US conducted military operations in the region, signaling a response.
The Biden administration has been under pressure, as reported in the media for some time, to bring an end to military operations, facilitate humanitarian aid, and address the post-war governance of Gaza, especially considering the lack of positive response from the Netanyahu government. Reports suggested that Netanyahu's government did not respond positively to these requests, and there were indications that Washington's patience was wearing thin. The latest news, where Biden reportedly told Netanyahu that the ultimate solution is a two-state resolution, was quickly countered by Netanyahu stating that this possibility is not on the table, creating a significant setback for Washington. With these statements, Netanyahu not only declared the obvious but also made it clear that under his leadership, there would be no genuine peace process, embarrassing the American President, his biggest supporter, in the eyes of the public.
The Biden administration hasn't fundamentally altered its unwavering support for Israel since the beginning of the crisis. However, in the face of heavy criticism from the international community, regional countries, and even its own party and American public, especially in the past two weeks, it has started emphasizing the humanitarian crisis more. As Washington increasingly finds itself isolated on the international stage, it has begun to add qualifiers, such as the need to protect civilians and ensure humanitarian aid access, while reiterating its full support for Israel. Reports have also suggested that Israel is preparing for a large-scale invasion of Gaza, but Washington is recommending a narrower operation that takes into account the safety of hostages and civilians. The change in rhetoric seems to reflect the administration's growing awareness of the need to alleviate public pressure.
In the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the ongoing Israeli retaliation, is there anything different in the U.S. government’s response this time around?
In President Biden's visit to Israel on Wednesday, it wouldn't be surprising if he reiterates his 'unconditional' support while also placing veiled conditions on the Gaza operation. Statements by Secretary of State Blinken during his shuttle diplomacy in the region highlighted how uncomfortable regional countries are with Israel's attacks. Biden's meetings with King Abdullah of Jordan, President Sisi of Egypt, and Palestinian leader Abbas indicate his reluctance to provide Israel with unwavering, unconditional support and his consideration of regional dynamics. Despite his initial statement of unconditional support for Israel, it could be argued that he insists on the condition that it does not escalate into a regional conflict.